The Stock Market has Me So Angry! Here is why
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This stock market is a real piece of work let me tell you. Stocks went flying up today right before the market closed like, come on man. Is this stock market rally for real. The recession is roaring, the economy is a mess, and stock prices don’t care about anything. Whatever Nasdaq wants a new high and what the Nasdaq wants the NASDAQ gets.
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All the stock market has crept up as the stock market has we so mad I am angry at the stock market. Okay. Public Accounts today was $4,732. I made five figures today, five figures. Okay. And when I say a mat I say I’m really mad, okay. When I saw the stock market today, that was my exact face.
I feel like I’ve had my flip Jacks flipped like 50 times by this market. Okay. Let me explain in this video why this market has me so upset right now. Okay, I’m really mad. Let me explain this. Okay. Before I say that, just thank you subscribers.
Okay, holy smokers, we’re going to hit a half million subscribers here over the next few weeks. I just wanna say, thank you for being subscribed. Okay, NASDAQ, let’s look at the NASDAQ, you know, bottomed out right around 6600. back What was that about two months ago now, right. And it goes on this crazy climb.
I mean, it’s absolutely parabolic nutso climb to over 9200 as of just a few days ago, right. NASDAQ as a few days ago was up over 20% on a one year chart. 20 flipping. Oh, my goodness. I’m like a football player, just office storage tank. Okay, let’s go ahead and look at this. Let’s just take a peek. Okay.
This is now looking at a one month chart for the NASDAQ composite look at the climate went on. And then it was finally starting. The market was finally starting to go down. What do you know, oh, my goodness, it was finally starting to dip a bit.
It was finally doing it was down to about 8700 or so. And then today, things start out red. And then it goes up and up and up and up. And the mysterious buyer that nobody knows who it is just buys up the market and buys it up. And every time that market tries to dip that mysterious buyer, that mysterious organization is just buying and buying and buying okay.
New claims for unemployment insurance came out today, almost 3 million in the last week, almost 3 million economists expected 2.7 million. So it was worse than everybody expected. Which 3 million is a disaster. Okay. And it was worse than everybody expected. In somehow mysteriously the NASDAQ climbs throughout the day.
How does that? How does that make any sense guys? What in the world was going on? Look at this chart, you want to see one of the most startling charts you’re you’ll ever see in economics and your entire life. Look at this chart here. This is initial claims since March.
Okay. Look at the Great Recession on this chart. It barely shows up. I mean, literally, the Great Recession looks completely irrelevant, compared to what is going on now. completely completely, completely irrelevant. It’s not even close. Look at that.
I mean, oh, the Great Recession, it was so bad. Oh my gosh, remember how many people were unemployed? Oh, man, that really sucked. And then you go ahead and look at a chart and it’s just a small Blip. It’s a baby compared to what’s going on right now.
When it comes to initial jobless claims and unemployment insurance claims. It’s It’s extraordinary. Let’s be very clear, 36 and a half million over the past eight weeks. That number is is just mind blowing, simply mind blowing. And I know what if somebody is super, super bullish.
And super, super optimistic on this whole scenario? Of course, you’re gonna say, well, as things open back up, those numbers should come down and they should come down. But just because they started to come down doesn’t mean they’re not incredibly high, still in ridiculously high, okay.
The government knows they have to continue to support things. The government’s very worried that when things do open back up over the next few months, it’s not going to be the way it was. I mean, let’s be very clear about that. The White House just came out news breaking within the last like 30 minutes, the White House would likely support a new round of stimulus checks.
We’ve already had a ton of stimulus checks sent out there, the White House wants to send more stimulus checks. You know, the dems, they just announced yesterday, they want a $3 trillion deal. And that would include a bunch more stimulus checks money to state and local governments.
And you just look at this. It’s pretty clear on both sides of the party, they they realize we need it, we need to pump more money out there. What we’ve done, and the numbers have been, you know, just startling the numbers out there that the government has put out there for trying to support the system, right?
And yet, they still feel like it’s not even close to being enough. We’re gonna need trillions more pumped into this. That’s extraordinary. Okay. Meanwhile, as of today, the NASDAQ is up over 30 2% in the past one year, up over 13% in the past one year. Are you kidding me? You must be kidding me. Okay.
The s&p 500 is break even in the past one year, you’re telling me that that, you know, 12 months ago, things were the same as they are today. And valuation should be the same as the as you know, basically 12 months ago? How, how, what reality? Does that make sense?
Literally, what reality? Does it make sense for the stock market to be the same exact as it was 12 months ago? I would love to hear an explanation for that, because that makes absolutely zero sense. And never mind the fact that the s&p 500 was actually up over 4% in the past 12 months as a Friday.
That was a whole like, how, how does that make sense? Okay, let’s just run through a small list of the bad news. I couldn’t write it all out, it would have taken me, you know, a half an hour to do that. Okay, here’s just some of the bad news, unemployment sky high, literally the highest since the Great Depression.
And I believe that unemployment will probably be above 10% for probably about a year if not longer than a year. Okay. But the fact is unemployment sky high right now. Number two, company earnings are down massively. We just had the first earnings season that was only really, you know, kind of affected by Ronnie Rauner.
Right, which was the month of March and we just had those earnings. Almost every single company reported, you know, pretty decently down earnings year over year and let’s say we’re very, very select stock that that somehow benefited and those were few and far between.
and Never mind that this upcoming quarter, it’s going to be way worse. I mean, get ready for the real ugly earnings this next quarter. Oh my goodness, Kay, would you know the real ugly earnings are coming okay. Number three, Roni, Roni is not stopping.
This hasn’t ended. It’s not over. It’s not like whoa, we want against Ronnie roenick know, it’s still going on every day. The numbers keep going higher and higher and higher. Okay, number four bankruptcies. You know, even though the feds trying to backstop everything, they’re still going to be a lot of small business, bankruptcies, midsize business bankruptcies, and even some big companies that go under.
I mean, you’ve just even even with all the backstops, you still can’t support it all. Number five balance sheets of every single Corporation pretty much out there has gotten worse over the past year than what it was. And there might be one out of every 20 stocks that actually has a better balance sheet now than they had 12 months ago.
But I can tell you almost every single s&p 500 company out there, their balance sheet has gotten worse, they’ve had to take out a bunch of debt, they had to you know, draw down on credit facilities, they’ve had to do whatever it takes. So they could make it through this big Roni ruin a mess, which leads to number six, we don’t even have a fax for Ronnie Ronnie yet.
But once again, this is still going on. We haven’t, you know, found the cure for Ronnie, Rona, or anything that will help with that. And it’s just, you know, we’re still in the same scenario we’re in months ago. Number seven, the US oil and gas industry is you know, it’s on the it’s on the verge of being completely done.
Most of these oil companies that were drilling out in the shale, they’re done, and they might never come back. Because even if oil prices get back to, you know, $40 $50, the US player still wouldn’t really make any money at those prices. And even if oil goes to 60 or 70, which is where, you know, the US players would kind of need if they’re going to actually make some money.
A lot of the banks are they really going to loan money to those us oil players? that’s a that’s a big industry and how many jobs are created adjacent to that industry? You know, it’s hard to see anything in that that industry surviving. Okay, then industry is pretty much done.
Number eight huge industries need bailouts. Okay, what’s wrong? I mean, think about the airline’s industry, the airline’s industry. I mean, it went from you know, the airlines are awesome, and they’re doing so good to literally pretty much every single us airline would be bankrupt right now.
All their stocks would be at zero today is zero, like Robert De Niro back when he was in Last Action Hero, if it was not for the fact that the government literally build these guys out think about that surplus would probably be zero today, American Airlines probably zero today and all the rest of them as well.
And if they weren’t zero already, they were going to be zero. The government had to bail them out. Think about that. And that’s not the only industry there was a ton of other industries. Okay. And keep in mind, by the way, the banks are basically government banks now, okay, even though they’re they’re like, Oh, yeah, we’re a private bank.
Now. Pretty much. No, you’re a government bank now. Okay. Number nine, GDP declines are like something we’ve never seen before. Pretty much in modern history. And throughout history, like wait till this next quarter comes out, the GDP numbers are going to be it’s going to be the worst we’ve ever seen. Let’s just put it that way.
And definitely in modern history is going to make everything else look like a complete joke. A third of the population can’t even go out because of age. You know, obviously, if you’re afraid of getting Roni, Rona, it’s an age related thing, as well as if you have some underlying conditions there. So a third of the population they can’t even go out, man, even if they want to go out and do stuff, they really can’t.
So you know, that’s some other things factor in you know, people Think well, some people are going to go out and they’re going to do stuff. sure some people are. But what happens when a huge segment of the economy can’t still? Is there things to think about?
And by the way, I could have wrote down another 10 2030, bad news things was just some of the biggest that come to my mind a khadeem include things like the fact that a lot of these corporations aren’t even matching 401 K’s anymore. A lot of them have halted pension plans.
And you know, oh, my goodness, we could go through so many things. Cake, it, what do we have for the good news? What is the actual good news? What is stimulus checks are going out? Hopefully, people go out and spend that money. I don’t know, maybe they’re just spending that money on the Robin Hood app.
I don’t really know. But the good news is stimulus checks have gone out. And that’s that’s, you know, money has been credited into people’s bank accounts. Number two, the Fed is trying to buy everything in sight. It doesn’t matter what it is the feds trying to buy every now.
And number three government wants to keep pumping out money and this is on both sides of the party. They’re both very confident. It’s just you know how much money they put out there. What gets money, but at the end of the day, you’re just there just want to put money, money, money, get it out there, get it to people get to businesses, it who cares where it goes, we just need money in the system.
Okay. So when you see the bad news case, and you see the good news case, totally once again, why does the s&p 500 deserve to be breakeven over the past 12 months? Because it just doesn’t make sense to be quite frank. It just doesn’t it? I mean, it’s ridiculous.
And I know some investors are saying well, you know, the NASDAQ’s not at an all time high right now. It hit like 9800. back before Roni Rona took off. Okay, so we’re not there yet. Yeah, we were up to like 9200, approaching 9300. But hey, we’re not at 9800. Okay.
And keep in mind when it hit 9800 it did that for like a week, okay, for like, literally one week and things were dramatically different than in dramatically different in a good way. Not a bad way the world has changed in a massive way. So the fact that is saying, well, it’s not quite up to all time highs yet I think that’s just a ridiculous, completely ridiculous way of looking at it.
And who is buying this market? This is what really, really makes me mad. I’m like, who is buying this? Because the fact is, the majority of big investors are not putting money in this market right now. We know this through SEC filings. We can see this.
So Can somebody tell me who is buying Apple stock at a 26 forward p Apple stock never trades at a 26 Ford p? I mean, never it not even any time in remote history has Apple traded anywhere close to a 26 forward P and yet it’s trading at a 26 Ford P and somebody out there is mysteriously buying up Apple stock to push it up. Push it up.
Who’s doing this literally who’s doing it because it’s not Buffett and I can tell you it’s not Philippe down the street who just bought one apple share today on his Robin Hood account. Okay. It’s not him. who’s buying Apple stock at a 26? Four p? That’s what I really want to know. I don’t know.
Seriously, I really want to get to the bottom of this. Who the hell is buying Apple stock at 26? Four p? I would love to I would love I would love to find out that answer. I really would. Who? Oh, who is buying Shopify stock out of 5000. Forward PE who’s doing it?
Okay, I know I’m really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really ever though. I really want to figure this out. Who is buying Shopify stock at a 5004 p? Can someone point them out to me because I really just want to I just want to talk to them.
And I just want to just want to understand why they’re buying Shopify, a $754 a share, please, who GM is getting a bit now GM is getting a bit. Why don’t we just buy every stock every creation in the stock market? Who cares about valuation? Who cares what the worries are about the business model long term and who cares what for pa trades that let’s just buy everything GM? gM is a 4%.
Today, GM is getting a band, GM General Motors, they’re getting a bid. And who’s buying all this guys. The fact is we have so much good news now priced in for the second half of 2020. Just so much good news. We need you know the world to get back on track like it like it never stopped.
We need businesses to open back up in business to be robust and continue to build into the fall time into the winter time when the corporate earnings to get right back to where basically they were because the markets have climbed almost back to where they were right s&p 500 is breakeven over the last 12 months NASDAQ’s up 13 14%.
In the past 12 months, we need basically corporate earnings to get right back to where they were right back in really, really quick. Then when you’re in that type of market, you have priced in so much good news, that it’s hard to actually impress the market and to get the market to go up past that.
The fact is, the market should be discounting the fact that oh my gosh, things might not go as planned. Oh my gosh, corporate earnings might not get right back. It might take a while and yet the market has no patience right now. The fact that I was up $4,732 in the past But count.
And you know, my easily made five figures plus today? I think it’s ridiculous. I’ll be completely honest. I think it’s ridiculous. I think in this type of market, this shouldn’t be happening. I just don’t. Okay. This market has no patience right now let’s be very clear.
The stock market right now has no patience. And the stock market right now is fishy. And I mean, fishy. I mean, it smells like a big like sushi pot. That’s how fishy the stock market is. Okay. And let’s be very clear, no, and I don’t want to go on conspiracy theories.
But let’s just be very clear. Everyone wants to stock market higher, right? Everyone does, right, the president, he tweets about it all the time, he definitely wants to stock market higher, there’s much higher probability, the president united states gets reelected.
If the stock market’s high, right? The real estate market, they all want the stock market higher rate, if you keep in mind, if there’s confidence in the stock market, it’s going up and assets are increasing. And people’s, you know, stock market accounts are going up, they’re much more likely to go ahead and buy real estate and feel confident about making a big purchasing decision.
But keep in mind, real estate for most folks, that’s their biggest purchase. So if you want to keep the real estate market strong, also keep the stock market strong, they can go hand in hand. And if the stock market is down dramatically, then people are going to feel much less confident.
And they’re also going to be more poor, they’re gonna have less assets. And if they have less assets, then they’re less likely to be able to buy a house. Right. So real estate market, they need a high stock market, retirees, we have the baby boomer generation, all retiring right now we’re getting very close to retiring.
All those folks. And a lot of those folks are Guess what? They’re the folks that vote these politicians in office, right? I mean, let’s be honest, most people in their 20s and 30s. Those aren’t the people that are voting people in our office, they’re really not. Well, you know, they, you know, they don’t do that, for the most part.
It’s the retirees, they’re the ones that are the diehard voters for their parties and things like that, in all these people, they’re all retired or they’re all going to retire. And a ton of them have money invest in the stock market. They all want a high stock market.
They all want a high stock market, they don’t want they don’t want the NASDAQ to be 6000 5000. They don’t want the Dow to be 18,000 15,000. Because guess what, they live off that money. They don’t want that. None of those individuals want that. Okay.
And they’re not the only ones. Okay? None of them care about valuation in that’s what just gets me really mad. Okay. All they care about is high. They just want it all high. Who wouldn’t? If think about if you’re retired, right? Now you’re about to retire?
What do you want, you want your you want your stock market account count to be as high as possible, right? That’s what you want. If you’re sitting in office, right now, you want the stock market to be as high as possible. You don’t want a low stock market and everybody in between, they all want a high stock market, they don’t care about valuation, just pump it up, pump it up, pump it up, we just want high, high high, at the end of the day.
That’s why I’m really mad, I look at the stock market. And the valuations are just ridiculous. Considering the risks we actually have out there. There’s no patience. All it is it’s just it’s just pumped out of nowhere, with no identity of who’s actually really buying out there in a major way.
And that is the most frustrating thing to me. And that’s why I’m mad. Because all it is it’s just let’s just get this stock market as high as possible. Who cares about valuation evaluation doesn’t matter. And those are the types of stock markets that are that are very, very scary.
And, you know, I know it’s driven some people seeing this to short positions that I put up to sing and things like that. I can’t do it. Because just because I’m mad about it. It doesn’t mean it can’t keep going up. It doesn’t it who knows maybe maybe Apple is going to go to a 34 P and it will still be getting a bid.
Maybe it goes to 4040 you never know when the stuff ends. It could end in in a week from now can end in a few months from now could end in a year from now. And right now the market doesn’t care about valuations. The market doesn’t care about risk. The market doesn’t care about all the real negative things going on out there. It doesn’t care about any of that. All he cares about is Thank you for watching and have a great day.