The Election will cause Stock Market to Do This! Get Ready!
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This is where you can chat for free with other investors in the stock market about individual stocks or things going on in the market. Enjoy! Election Day is upon us guys!! Just a few weeks before Election Day and early voting has already begun!
So we have to discuss what exactly is going to happen when we find out who the president is going to be! We will discuss who most likely will win the election and how exactly will the stock market be affected.
Hope you enjoy this video! This video has been requested so much lately so I finally decided to do it! Let me know what your thoughts are about Election Day.
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Well, thoughts on election season is upon us. Can you say all the time as complicated though election is just a mere two weeks away. Now, early voting has already started. I could tell you the lines here in Vegas and Nevada in general, are insane. From what I am hearing.
I think this is gonna be one of the biggest voter turnouts we’ve seen in quite a while. Let’s just put that way. I mean, it’s insane. absolutely insane. And so being that it’s election time, we got to talk about those stock market.
Okay, and what the heck is about to happen here so the Dow today fell over 400 points, s&p 500 was down 1.63% NASDAQ was down as well. And if we look at the markets recently, they haven’t really been doing that much they’ve kind of been in no man’s land lately. Like look at the NASDAQ.
It’s just kind of like floundering around not really doing much right. s&p 500 last couple months pretty much the same exact situation All right, so in this video here today, we’re going to talk about a lot of stuff Okay, first off.
Who’s going to likely win the election we got to talk about that okay, because we’ll talk about that and then we can figure out who the markets likely pricing in to win this election because remember the markets always pricing in like certainties, or, you know possible scenarios that are going to play out Okay, and so who is the stock market planning to win this election?
What should you be doing to prepare for this whole situation, what stocks will drop if a certain person wins and what stocks will likely rise if a certain candidate wins we’re going to get into all that in this video.
This is the epic election video as so many guys have been requested for me to do. bout like this election how it’s gonna affect the stock market in general and particular stocks out there. We’ll get into all that in this video it’s going to be a very in depth video so hope you guys enjoy it as always.
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It’s going to be linked in the description. I might even have it as the pinned comment down there. We are going to hit over 20,000 members in there this week. absolutely insane already guys, let’s start getting at first who’s going to likely win this presidential election and keep in mind what I’m about to show you nothing is for sure. Okay.
So just because we might talk about you know, this person might win or that person might win just keep in mind nothing is first certain in this whole situation.
All righty already guys. So let’s start looking at the polls. All right. So if we start looking at these polls, Biden’s up huge and I mean absolutely huge and it doesn’t matter what poll you look at if you’re looking at Fox News poll cnn polls it doesn’t matter where you look at the polls okay.
The polls all have by pretty huge k by about 9.8 as of right now Clinton at the same point was about 6.5 Now keep in mind right before the election you know was at five You know,
I think it’s like 10 days before the election there was a whole relook into in the Clinton in the email situation that hurt her really really bad in my opinion and a lot of folks opinion so you know.
Does something like that come out about buying right before the election or not you know as of right now Biden’s up huge there’s no other way of putting it Arizona a lot of polls have Biden up three plus percent Florida over to Georgia one you know that just gonna be really close. Georgia. Okay.
I was you know, pretty dang close. Michigan, it actually has been a pretty big Minnesota by not really big Nevada Biden up pretty good size here. North Carolina is going to be another close one. That’s definitely within the margin of error in North Carolina. That should be crazy.
Ohio has Trump up a little bit. Pennsylvania has Biden up pretty decent. Texas has Trump up right around three. The strange thing about Texas is I mean, if that’s even like a question, you know, that shouldn’t even be a question that should be trumped up huge in Texas.
So we’re going to see what the numbers end up shake out in Texas. Okay. Wisconsin has bind up pretty big as well. Okay, but then you’ve seen headlines like this Trump roars back in Florida biding gains in Georgia, and you’re gonna see some volatility like this, the polls going up and down and all around, let’s just put it that way. Okay.
But as of right now, Biden is definitely favored to win the election. I’ve seen almost every single prediction I’ve seen out there from any credible source out there, okay, basically has if you’re putting odds on it, anywhere from a Biden having about a 90% chance of winning to about a 70% chance of winning, so let’s say 70% to 90%.
Trump has about a 10% to 30% chance of winning this election. You know, if you’re just looking at the polls, all the data we’re getting out of those polls, and things like that, okay.
However, this is something to remember, okay, for all the Trump folks out there, remember, the polls don’t vote. And just because you know, Biden might be up huge doesn’t mean you shouldn’t go out there and vote because hey, at the end of the day, remember Clinton was up in the polls, and although Clinton won the popular vote, she still end up losing the Electoral College.
So absolutely. He just because Your candidate might be down the polls does not mean, you know, they’re not going to win the election. And for the Biden, folks, you know, you better not get complacent this whole situation and remember what happened, obviously, in 2016.
I don’t think the democratic side will get complacent, this whole scenario, I think they’re going to come out in mass and vote because I saw what happened in 16, when a lot of people took that election for granted. And they’re like, oh, Clinton’s gonna win anyway, it’s not going to be close.
And then also on election night, people were in shock on election night, because all the polls had Clinton winning. And a lot of people thought, Oh, yeah, she’s just and then a lot of people just didn’t show up to the to the voting lines.
I mean, if you saw the voter numbers, for the last election, it was low, and I’m talking really low, I don’t think that’s going to happen. But at the same time, man, if you’re, if you think Biden’s just gonna win this easy, you know, you know, just don’t Don’t, don’t take anything for granted.
hat’s all I’m gonna say. And if you want, you know, certain candidate to win, you better go out there and vote for them. If I had, you know, let’s say I was placing a bet for one of these candidates to win, which I cannot legally do that.
But let’s say it was legally allowed for me as a US citizen living in Vegas to go, you know, place a bet at a sports book, I would be putting my money at the Wynn resorts, of course, and I’d be putting my money on Biden, I think vine will win the presidential election time will tell Okay, and the market is pricing in a Biden victory.
All ready, okay, the market is pricing in a Biden victory member, the markets always looking at what’s going to probably happen, and what’s going to probably happen and Joe Biden will be the president.
And so the markets already pricing that in and we can kind of tell that with how the market is acting, because look at the market, it’s not really doing much K, because the market kind of gets into this confused state.
It’s like, Okay, well, what’s Biden’s approach? Because the market going to be, you know, you can hear all these things on the campaign trail, and somebody can say, oh, we’re gonna do this or do that.
But you don’t really know what their approach is for sure, until they actually get an office. So the markets a little confused about, like, Where’s the what’s the approach going to be? And also, what are the policies that are actually going to go into place? Remember, candidates all the time to talk about we’re going to do this, we’re going to do that.
And a lot of it never gets done. But what’s what’s actually the 123 things that will actually get done, or taxes on that same wealthy individual is going to go up? And how much are they going to go up corporate taxes towards corporate tax rates, there’s been talk about buying basically going from 21% to 28%.
So that happens, you know, obviously, that’s less money for the corporations, what happens in that scenario? So that’s why I think we’re getting the market into this area right now, where it’s a no man’s land, it’s not really doing much right now.
It’s just kind of who’s going up, it’s going down, it’s going sideways, is no progress being made in the market last couple of months. Okay. Now, look at this here.
This shows you how the market is done under different presidential candidates. And what you’re gonna find is under most presidential candidates, where does the market go? up? Okay. I mean, for the most part doesn’t matter, Republican or Democrat, mostly the stock market is going up. I think this one’s really, really key.
This is so dang key, this slide here, okay. Why is this, this is showing you the incumbent party if they won, okay, so if Trump won, versus if Trump lost, okay, then what you’re going to see here, essentially, at the end of the day is since Trump is in the incumbent party.
Like usually the market does really, really well go into that if the markets pricing in essentially that, let’s say the incumbent will win, which is obviously Trump in this situation, right?
So if you look at six months prior three months prior one month prior, usually the markets really, really good if the markets price again, a Trump Trump victory in that, okay, now, we’ve seen some weakness in the market, especially recently, remember, we just took those charts last two months, you know.
It’s not looking that great as far as the market goes recently. And so if you’re looking at something like that, you’re kind of looking at a situation where the markets likely pricing in a buying victory.
Now something to keep in mind is after the election, look at where the market usually goes. Regardless if they come and party won, or lost. Look where the market goes a day after a week after and a month after, usually down and sometimes even a year end. Okay.
So that is something to keep in mind there, that the market could very well go down. Regardless if Trump wins or Biden wins after the election. That’s really really really, really important. That’s why I had to show you guys this really, really important. Okay.
And look at this here, okay. The stock market in an election year, which obviously we’re in an election year 2020 Okay. It usually does really good look at Johnson versus Goldwater market went up 16.5% that your Nixon versus Humphrey up 11% Nixon versus McGovern market up 19% Carter versus Ford market was up almost 24% that year, look at this one.
Reagan versus Carter Mark was up over 32% Reagan versus Mondale man Monday only remember him okay. market was up 6% bush versus Dukakis market was up almost 17% Clinton versus bush up 7% Clinton versus dole market was up 23% bush versus gore market went down 9% that was coming off of the tech bubble.
I think that’s the main reason the market went down that year if it hadn’t been for the tech bubble market probably would have been up that year as well. Okay. 2004 bush versus Kerry mark, who was Up 11% Obama versus McCain market went down 37%. Obviously, that was in the middle of the Great Recession market, find the bottom.
I think it was March 2009. Okay. Obama versus romney market was up 16% and Trump versus Clinton market was up 12%. So usually on election year, the market does well, okay. The market does well, no other way of putting out okay. And look at this, look at the s&p 501 year rate of return 12.9% Oh, we’re right in line with what is supposed to happen.
Isn’t that funny. But keep in mind, just because this year is fairly well doesn’t mean that things are gonna stay like this. Because remember, day after week after month after Usually, the market does not do well.
So expect if we’re looking at the probabilities here, okay? If we’re looking at probabilities expect November and December will probably be bad for stocks keyword is probably once again, nothing’s for sure. every election is different. Every situation is different.
But the market will probably be weak in November in December. Now, this could cause a big change in the market, though, think about this, right? I mean, they’re talking about a $2 trillion stimulus package coming sometime soon.
So what if that happens? Does that change things? What if the stimulus package doesn’t happen anytime soon? And we get into January, February, when we still have it? Does that mean the market goes down more?
There’s so many different variables in this whole election that you can’t just say, well, because this has happened in the past means it’ll happen again. Okay, here is my two cents on this whole scenario.
Okay, my two cents, Is this okay? And then we’re gonna get into the stocks, individual stocks that could do good or bad, depending on upon, like, who gets voted out? Okay. Something to keep in mind.
I always tell you guys always have your cash ready, always have 10 to 30% of your wealth, essentially, in cash always ready to go. and in this situation being that the market will probably go down in November and December, you got to have some sort of cash ready, okay.
10% is kind of what you get down to when you’re buying stocks like crazy and you feel like there’s a million good deals out there. 30% is what you get up to when you feel like there are not that many good deals. And you know, right now in the market, there are definitely some deals out there.
But they’re few and far between. I probably know of like five stocks right now that I really like and I really think are super attractive at the current prices, maybe 10. Stocks, five stocks is probably my safe bet.
But that isn’t a whole heck of a lot. There’s been other times in the market when I look out there and I’m like, there’s like 50 100 stocks right now that are good deals. Okay, something to keep in mind. For me right now, personally, I’m at about 20% or a little over 20% cash right now.
Okay, it doesn’t mean actual physical cash, it just means like money in different savings accounts, brokerage accounts, like just sitting around different places like that checking accounts, I’m at around between 20 and 25% cash right now, I’m probably at maybe like 20, to 23%, to be exact, as far as my cash levels at the moment.
So I am fully ready that if we have some weakness in the market, I’m ready to take take full advantage that I’m mostly invested in the stock market right now. But I have a good chunk of change, just sitting on the sidelines that I’m like,
Hey, man, if this market wants to do what it usually does, after a presidential election, which is go down. I am fully ready to take advantage of any deals out there and wants to give us over the next three to six months, and you want to make sure you’re in a position.
Where you got some cash that is ready to deploy in the market doesn’t mean well, the market will probably go down over the next couple months. So let me sell all my stocks and get out of the market. Absolutely not.
It’s usually a very poor decision. If you want truly great assets, which are, you know, great companies, great stocks, you shouldn’t really sell out regardless if it’s Biden or Trump, that’s just flat out honest truth because that’s usually a poor decision.
Remember, there was a lot of people that were selling out of their accounts left and right in March and April, because, you know, oh my gosh, you know, the stock market’s gonna go, I don’t know what they’re planning on zero.
I held through a lot of you guys held through, obviously, you know, there’s a lot better than selling out when the Dow was 18,000, or whatever it was. So usually want to hold your great assets, but always you have some cash ready to go already, guys.
So let’s start getting into this. Okay. Now, what if Trump wins, so we know the market is likely pricing in a Biden victory? So the question is, if Trump wins, what stocks could have trouble in my personal opinion out there? Okay.
I think the first group I’d really worried about if Trump wins, you know, which let’s say there’s a 10% to 30% probability Trump could win this election. I think Chinese stocks are going to be in real danger if Trump wins, and it doesn’t mean like, oh, all the Chinese stocks are going to zero No, absolutely not.
But if I’m thinking about a group of stocks that will likely downtrend for days after if not weeks, after, if not months after, if not a year or two after Chinese stocks absolutely fit that agenda. Okay. Alibaba, look at Alibaba. It’s just showed further and further strength throughout the summertime from under $200.
a share to now it’s trading over $300 a share. I think Alibaba is pricing in a Biden victory. And if a Biden victory comes likely us China relations will become a lot better. Let’s put it that way.
You know, Trump’s really, you know, gone after China and China’s really retaliated a lot, obviously okay, but as the polls have shown Biden is likely going to win. Guess what Alibaba has continued to show strength and strength and strength.
And so it’s kind of pricing in that Biden’s gonna win. But if Trump wins, expect alibaba stock to likely weaken. Okay, Neil, that’s another perfect example. Look at this stock has gone from $3 $27.
Remember Trump and the Trump administration has talked about many times d listing these Chinese stocks, and that’s a real big huge risk that’s out there. Right. And so this is another stock that has showed continued strength being that a lot of people are excited about the company.
But also the fact that they’re just a lot of people expect us China relations to get a lot better under a Biden presidency. Okay, Baidu, looking at Baidu, this one has been under $100.
If you go back to me, now, it’s like $130 a share, look for that one to likely weaken 10 cent 10 cent was, you know, low 50s. Now it’s low 70s. It’s just show continued strength and strength throughout the summer.
And as we’ve gotten closer and closer to election, a lot of people praising in that they believe Biden will win the election. Okay, so those Chinese stocks, I would definitely watch out for those. If Trump does win the election.
I would look for all those stocks to pretty much weaken across the board if Trump wins the presidency. Okay, now, Caterpillar, this is another one, I could see that if Trump wins, I can see this one actually going down quite considerably. Okay.
Why Caterpillar? Well, I think one a lot of people are pricing in better us China relations in the Chinese economy, getting back on track more and more. And keep in mind, Caterpillar, their second biggest market for them is actually China.
So being that their second biggest market is China. Hmm, like us China relations are really, really important, get the Chinese economy back up and running really strong again, very, very important for caterpillar.
And so Caterpillar has continued to climb more and more and more. And specifically, even though the market has continued to kind of be weak, the last couple months, look at Caterpillar stock, the last couple months.
It’s continued to go up and up, not because people are like, oh, things are gonna get better between US and China, Chinese economy is gonna come back stronger and stronger. And then also there’s a lot of talk net, if Biden gets in, there’s going to be a huge infrastructure bill, right.
And if the democrats want a bunch more seats, a huge infrastructure bill coming for huge infrastructure bill comes in the US I’m talking about specifically, guess who that’s going to help massively Caterpillar Okay, so it’s another stock that if Trump wins,
I expect Caterpillar stock to actually weaken. But if the stock weakens a bunch, that can also be a potential buying opportunity for somebody that might want to own a great asset like caterpillars, an amazing company, a very good asset.
Okay, Google Tesla, my so stock What about this one? So this is a stock, I can definitely see weakening potentially, if Trump is reelected, I believe there’s a lot of folks out there especially on wall street that believe if Biden becomes president, and there’s a democratic presidency and administration.
There’s going to be a lot of laws and regulations put in to benefit Evie companies, electric vehicle companies, such as Tesla, my Tesla, now, Tesla, my Tesla, I don’t care who’s president, it could be Trump, President Biden president, it doesn’t matter.
Tesla is going to succeed in a massive way. However, if you want to put the stock on steroids, put in maybe a democratic presidency and administration that will maybe put some things in place or push for a lot of different laws and regulations that will kind of favor things even more toward electric vehicles, sustainable energy, solar, wind, those sorts of things.
All that benefits Tesla in a massive, massive way. And you look at something like this right? They done in California, California Governor, this came out last month k California Governor signs order banning banning sales of new gasoline cars by 2035.
In California, what if there was some sort of regulation or or law that comes out in the next few years that that becomes a blanket law across the entire United States of America that 2035 and when you see things like this, Wall Street looks at this fundamentals, look at this, and they say okay, gasoline cars ban, hmm.
Who else sells non gasoline cars in volume? Oh, there’s one company in the world that does it. Their name is Tesla and their electric vehicles? Hmm. probably buy Tesla stock, right?
It’s as simple as that. So this is something a really, really keep in mind. Okay. Now, the MJ stocks. Let’s talk about the MJ stock for a second, okay? If we’re thinking about who’s the likely who’s more likely to get federal legalization of the MJ space done, it would more likely be Joe Biden and Kamala Harris presidency, right.
But at the same time, keep in mind, they’re not even an automatic. It’s not like Biden and Harris are out out in front and be like, let’s legalize MJ, you know, they’re certainly not like that at all.
But if you’re thinking about who could be closer to that, it’s definitely those two over Trump and Pence, I would say under Trump and Pence is probably less than a 1% probability federal legalization comes within the next four years.
Let’s put it that way. Under a Biden and Harris presidency, I can see there probably being like a 30 to 40% chance of federal legalization coming in the next four years. Let’s put it that way. So if there’s a 30 to 40% probability versus a 1%, or less probability all See, the MJ stocks could benefit massive.
I mean, if you if you had federal legalization be announced in the next year or two, this would be probably the biggest game changer for MJ stocks out there because they could raise money so much easier.
They could expand their businesses so much easier without so many laws and regulations that are in place right now in the confusing, like landscape in that market. So, I mean, literally, if all sudden tomorrow legalization happened, I’m telling you, the stocks would would boom, like we probably haven’t seen them boom.
If you think some of the stocks have gone up a lot right now. Like just wait till federal legalization comes because that would be massive. Okay. Now, also, if Biden wins, right, which the markets already praised him by and when?
And I think that’s why some of the stocks haven’t been performing that well. There’s a lot of talk that Oh, my gosh, what if Biden closes down the economy again, or limits the economy in those worries around that right? Travel stocks?
I think travel stocks will not do very well, for the next, you know, three to 12 months. If Biden wins the presidency, I think they’ll remain kind of in a low ish area.
Let’s just put it that way. Remember, these travel stocks have already been beaten down a lot. And if all sudden you close the economy again, there’s worries, it doesn’t mean Biden has to close the economy, if there’s just worries from Wall Street, that Biden could close the economy again, that’s gonna cause the travel stocks to go down more. Okay.
Now, if you want to buy travel stocks, that’s actually great news for you. Okay. And I think that’s one of the reasons why Wynn resorts hasn’t come back that strong because I think there’s definitely a lot of people worried about what when.
What if, what if, you know, travel gets shut down again, major way and Vegas has to close Ganon Macau closes up more, more and more and things like that.
And so I think that’s why a lot of these travel stocks have continued to be weak, including the airlines, okay, commercial rates, look for those stocks to likely decline for, you know, at least a period of time, if Biden wins.
Remember, a lot of these rates are dependent upon commercial space, and getting, you know, top dollar for that. And also a lot of these companies, you know, especially small businesses, if they can’t pay the bills, those rates, man, your luck trying to make any money off of those, okay?
And also, I think sit down restaurants could be in real danger. I think names like cheesecake factory. I think names like Texas Roadhouse, Dave and Busters, any of those type of places I think could really struggle with their stock prices if Biden wins just because of the fear about maybe Biden shuts things down again. Okay.
Look at the airline stocks. I did a video recently about the airline stocks and these stocks are all trading really cheaply. A lot of them are still down 50% plus from where they were right before Roni right.
And man those stocks those stocks could potentially get cheaper if Biden wins presidency. Okay, so you know, depends on if you want to buy those stocks or not buy the stocks okay. But at the end of the day, don’t forget this guy’s
This is so dang massive and all this worry about what if Trump’s elected What if Biden’s elected the end of the day, don’t forget this, look at this chart here, okay, the market goes up, okay.
Sometimes the market goes down most of the time, democrat republican, whoever the market goes up and I always want you guys to remember that and not get lost in this as long term investors, you can’t get lost in all these different things that are going on you have to be ready for them.
You have to have you know plans in place that if this happens, what am I going to do but at the end of the day, the market goes up and you have to be ready for that and if you’re not ready for that, then you’re just kind of getting lost in this whole game because it’s all about being a long term investor and buying great assets for as cheapest prices as possible.
Hope you guys enjoyed today’s video as always, if you don’t mind smash that thumbs up helps huge and the algorithm I appreciate each and every one of you that are part of the thumbs up squad also if you want check out our free stock club check it out be probably be the pinned comment down there.
It’s also linked in the description you can talk stocks with a ton of other investors, which makes me think we got earnings season going crazy over the next three to four weeks. So I hope you guys are ready for earnings season.
This is going to be massive. I mean, like literally almost every single company that’s an important company in the world is reporting their earnings in the next three to four weeks. So get fully ready for this.
If you guys want to talk with other investors about that, make sure again, stock hub that’s going to be the place it’s going to be I don’t even it’s gonna be epic in there during this earnings season. I can only imagine how crazy that chat is going to be.
When Tesla reports earnings test the day that the Tesla chat it’s going to be absolute nuts. Let’s just put it that way guys. So hope you’re ready for everything. Hope you’re pumped. Make sure you got some cash ready to go and make sure you’re ready to buy some stocks. All right. Thank you for watching and have a great day.