Tesla Stock Should Be Worth This Much Today...
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Tesla stock should be worth this much as of today in my opinion.
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Well, good day subscribers and welcome into today’s video where we’re going to talk about what should Tesla stock price be here today, not what Tesla’s stock price should be in three years from now, or five years from now or 10 years from now. But what should the valuation on Tesla be here today?
Okay, well, I’m going to go through their different business segments with Tessa has, you know, several different opportunities are going after, do I assign the value to any of these business opportunities, how much value is given to some of these and keep in mind that Tesla is one of the hardest businesses to value because this is a hyper growth stock, like look at their revenues, from from 2011 to what they’ve done in 2018.
It’s unbelievable, okay, even if you look at their latest quarter versus their they’re seeing the same quarter last year, it’s unbelievable the rate that Tesla is rolling. So it’s a very hard company to value. There’s not a lot of people like know how to value and how to like break it down, right.
Some people think this stock should be $0, some people think you should be worth a few $100 Some people think the stock should be worth 700 to $1,000 here today, not in the future, they think they should be worth that here today. Okay. And .
I can completely understand why people have a lot of trouble value in stock like this, like this is one of the this is literally probably the hardest stock, probably in the entire stock market to value but any of these type of hyper growth companies that are going after, you know, tons of opportunities, it’s hard to value them.
It’s so easy to value, a Coca Cola, a Pepsi, a Johnson and Johnson and Procter gamble, those are a piece of cake to value because they have heard the any growth in those business models, they’re very consistent, they’re not going after really any huge opportunities, those type of companies are very, very easy to figure out, you know, what their real worth should be in the stock market.
A company like Tesla is completely dependent upon what one person thinks versus another person. Okay. So the way I like to start with breaking down a company like Tesla is I like to start with the pie in the sky opportunities. First company pie in the sky opportunities mean, things a company is going after.
But that might be three years away, it might be five years away, it might be seven years away, or the company might failing getting there, you got to understand the big tech companies, they’re trying stuff all the times behind closed doors, okay?
Every single company is trying to create the next successful product or service, you know, a ton of different projects constantly. Okay, you know, look at an apple, like Apple has so many secret projects going on. It’s unbelievable. Okay, Facebook, Google, any big tech company has a ton of projects either going on, you know, actively that most people know about, or behind the scenes that people don’t ever know about.
But a lot of times it doesn’t ever make it to the public’s attention because it doesn’t get to that place. Okay, so Tesla has definitely two huge pie in the sky opportunities are going after, okay, the first one is around their solar roofs in their power packs, we’ve seen them show off some pretty cool stuff as far as power packs go.
And as far as solar roofs, we’ve seen them with all the you know, the tiles that can go on the roof and whatnot. But keep in mind, that was something that was shown off three or four years ago, and we still have yet to really see that in the real world. So it’s an opportunity, but it’s so far out there.
And from my understanding, they’ve done a lot of testing on those tiles and whatnot. But it’s like you were not seeing in the real world yet, right? No one has a tough solar roof on the roof or something like that, right? No way. Like, they look awesome.
I think they look totally cool, we’re going off facts like people just don’t have those. Okay, that’s just not something that’s going on. Okay, so this whole segment of energy, I personally can’t see where Tesla’s going here, okay, I can’t see if they’re gonna, this is gonna be a business that’s going to bring them tons of profits someday, you know, hundreds of millions or billions of dollars.
As of today, I assigned Tesla’s energy business at a $0 value because I cannot see if that company is going to be super successful. Not super successful as far as that business segment goes, who knows it is completely it is completely a guest. As of right now love Tesla’s energy side of their business will make them a lot of money or not make them a lot of money on the bottom line in the future.
Okay, it is a complete 100% guess as of right now. So since it’s 100%, guess, and I can’t I can’t say they’re in front of somebody or behind somebody, I can’t, I can’t honestly tell where where they’re at with their energy business. For that reason, I assign a $0 value to Tesla’s energy business.
I don’t even give them a penny. Okay, because literally, who knows, okay, now, a year from now, two years from now, three years from now, maybe that changes, maybe Tesla starts to ramp these products, maybe they start bringing in profits? You know, we’ll see about all that.
But as of right now, it’s a completely guess game. Okay. So since it’s a complete guess, game, I’m not giving them any value for their energy side of their business as of today, but that can change who knows as a business that can be worth a lot of money, you know, future years. Okay. Let’s talk about the autonomous taxi network.
This is something that is at the minimum at the minimum three years away, but probably closer to five to seven years away before it starts to get going. Okay? Keep in mind when something starts to get going, doesn’t go into mass right away. It is something that takes time to ramp and things like that.
Okay, so the autonomous taxi network, this is going to be a massive opportunity in kind of how I look at the market and kind of how I see trends going and looking at the concrete numbers as of right now as far as ride sharing and things like that and how much cheaper it could to having an autonomous car driving people around rather than a physical human in the in the car and things like that, okay, here’s how I look at it.
I think the winner of this category autonomous taxi network, I think they’re gonna have around a $200 billion valuation, that’s assuming that business doesn’t do anything else. Literally, that’s all the business does, I think the winner in that space will have about a $200 billion valuation down the road, okay, but keep in mind, the winner is not going to be announced for this category for 10 to 15 years.
Okay, because once everything starts to get up and rolling, everybody’s going to be trying to compete in this and then we’ll see who shakes out who’s the number one, number two, okay. But in my opinion, looking at all the numbers and looking at how profitable I believe these cars will be.
I think it’s going to be about a $200 billion valuation given to the winner, the second place finisher, I think it’s going to have a burn $100 billion valuation. So these are, these are really big opportunities. And you have a lot of different companies going after this. Okay, the ones that I think of as the main ones are going to be Wei Mo, which is owned by Google, obviously.
They’re trying a lot of different things, as far as you know, working on autonomous vehicles and taxi networks and things like that, okay. So they’re going to be one going after it, they’re going to have the funding to do so being part of Google’s company, obviously, they’re going to have a great opportunity to maybe be the winner, there were a second place finisher.
Uber is going to be going after this Okay, obviously Ubers the biggest, you know, ride sharing service in the entire world right there, they if they want to stay relevant 10 years from now, they have to come and talk to us taxi networks, like they that’s how Uber has to be in the future, okay, otherwise, Uber will go from this big huge company to literally irrelevant pretty much overnight, okay.
And then you have lift going after this, and you’re gonna have the other automaker, some of the other automakers probably going after this, in my opinion, not such realistic competitors, you think about lift lift is so small, they’re not going to have the resources, in my opinion, to really, you know, make something like that are super big, long shot.
And then automakers, automakers are having a hard time even trying to catch up to the electric wave. And like autonomous vehicles in general. So if I’m looking at Legacy, automakers are Toyota, and Honda and Ford and General Motors in these types of companies, right, it’s possible, they could be the first or second place finisher in this category.
But I think that’s gonna be a long shot, because you look at how far a lot of these companies are starting just from the the electric side of getting their vehicles to be electric. So if it takes these type of companies this long to even try to start making electric vehicles, imagine trying to make an autonomous taxi network, like it’s just it’s, it’s pretty much out of their realm to try to pull something like that off, right.
So my opinion, the two main dogs that are going to be competing with Tesla, obviously, as a market, Tesla’s going to be going after are going to be way mo in Uber. So who’s going to be the first place finisher, I think Tesla is going to have a great opportunity to actually be a first place finish here, because the amount of sheer data This company has, and this company is collecting constantly from the autopilot feature that is in people’s cars.
Right now, it is on a totally unparalleled scale from any anybody else was basically trying to get to autonomy out there. Okay. And if we think about, you know, how hard is going to be to pull off a successful autonomy, you know, autonomous taxi network, right? huge deal like this is going to be a miracle.
Well, if I’m betting on companies that pull off miracles, is it way Moe? No, they don’t pull off miracles? Is it? Uber? They’ve done some pretty impressive things, but I wouldn’t call what they’ve done necessarily a miracle. What’s a company that pulls off these miracles consistently, it’s Tesla, okay.
The fact that Tesla has has shifted the entire automobile industry toward electric vehicles this fast where it was, like, few years ago, it was like, people were like, that’s a joke. And now it’s like, oh, no, all vehicles in the future could be electric, right? And then autonomous vehicles.
If it wasn’t for Tesla, I can guarantee you we’d be so much further back. They’re pushing everybody so much faster than we ever thought possible. Okay, so this is a miracle opportunity. And I’m going to bet on the company that has miracles, okay. But with that being said, it’s something that has many, many years out, okay, before it even starts to get going.
So which means I’m gonna say I, if I had to put my money on who’s going to be the winner in space, I’m gonna put my money on Tesla. But keep in mind, it’s a long time away. So I’ll give them a 1% valuation on what that market will be worth, in my opinion over time. So I’ll give him about $2 billion of valuation.
Okay, so from Tesla’s pie in the sky opportunities, I only give them a $2 billion valuation as of today, okay, now, keep in mind a year from now, two years from now, three years from now, things can change, right? Maybe they don’t look like they’re not gonna have a chance of this.
So this evaporates, maybe also in the energy businesses is ramping in a major way, maybe they start pouring in profits, maybe all sudden that’s worth billions like who knows down the road? We’re talking about today. Okay, so that’s a pie in the sky side of their business.
Now, let’s get into what’s going on. today. Already guys know, let’s go ahead and talk about where Tesla is today. Let’s talk about facts. It’s not talking about opinion here. Let’s just stay on the facts and kind of talk about where Tesla is today. Okay.
So the first thing you have to acknowledge before you acknowledge like anything that Tesla is doing, is the mere fact that all vehicles in the future will be electric vehicles. We don’t know if that’s going to be three years from now, five years from now seven 10 years from now 10 years from now we.
Don’t know how long it will take to get there everybody’s got a different opinion but every single auto manufacturer out there is saying electric vehicles are the future all vehicles in the future will be electric okay so there’s if even like the big legacy auto manufacturers are saying like all vehicles in the future gonna be electric.
That means for sure all vehicles I feel like for a few years they were in denial about it they were like no ice cars are here to stay and then now the you know, little just read the headlines like every big auto manufacturer is talking about electric vehicles of the future.
Now that’s the first thing you got to acknowledge also that the fact is, all cars will be autonomous in the future. I mean, the amount of deaths that happen on the road in a given day is ridiculous, okay, the amount of people that die are severely injured in car accidents is ridiculous. Okay, with autonomous vehicles, we should be able to get those numbers down substantially Okay, probably less than cut in half if not even more than that.
Okay. It will be as rare to see like car accidents I like 1020 years from now I imagine it would be as rare to see a major car accident than it is to like see a major plane crash or something like that. Okay, super, super rare stuff. That’s where we’re going in the future.
Okay, so that’s a trend you know, you can you can debate on how many years it will take to get there and that’s perfectly fair game, but the fact is, that’s where things are going. Okay, so Tesla here today is a number one volume seller of pure electric vehicles in the world.
Okay, number one pure electric vehicle maker out there Okay, there’s really no one even close to them. General Motors, Volkswagen Toyota, Honda doesn’t matter who you what what company you want to look at. Most of those companies don’t even really have a real electric vehicle in the market yet.
And the ones that do they’re just lagging significantly behind you can look at any of the charts out there for how many Tesla’s are sold versus other electric vehicles. Okay, fact, they’re by far and away the number $1 share of electric vehicles by even a more substantial rate.
So it’s not just the fact that they’re selling more in volume, the ASP for a Tesla vehicle versus a Chevy Bolt or something like that, like it’s a six, you know, it’s a significant significant more money, essentially, you’re paying for Tesla versus those other vehicles.
So if you’re looking at it, even on a more impressive basis, it’s rare that a company can not only be the number $1 share in a category, but also the number one volume cell and that’s a really really difficult thing to pull off. Okay? Tesla is doing that as of right now.
Okay? They’re also the leader in real world autonomy here today. Okay? If you think about real world autonomy, think about like go to go to any car dealership out there, okay, any car dealership, go to Toyota, go to the Honda go to, you know, General Motors, you know, a Chevy dealership, go to a Ford dealership, it literally doesn’t matter who you go to go to Ferrari dealership, a Lamborghini literally doesn’t matter.
Go ahead to any dealership out there and just go to like test drive a vehicle and see if they have anything even remotely comparable. I’m talking about their highest and the highest end vehicles and see if they have anything, anything even remotely comparable to like what Tesla can do on autonomous mode. And you’re gonna find it’s really not even a close it’s not even close guys.
So the basically Tesla’s in the front of everybody in real world autonomy companies can talk about they’re doing this or doing that, or they’re testing this or testing that what’s going on in the real world today. Okay, that’s something to keep in mind.
That’s kind of like the whole thing about oh, you know, all these companies are going to be to come Tesla killers, right? And it’s like, okay, there have been saying that for years now. And we’re in 2019, middle of 2019 is still hasn’t happened.
What are they coming? Okay, same exact thing. They’re number one brand name and electric vehicles by mile. There’s really no other car company that’s really known for electric vehicles. rivian is super, super, super, super nice. Right now, like unless you are a diehard, like person like me, that pays attention to what’s going on the market.
Like literally is no even a leather electric vehicle maker that’s even relevant on the face of the Earth right now. No one’s known for electric vehicles. And I think that’s a huge branding problem for all these guys that are ice. You know, ice vehicle manufacturers, when they try to come over to the electric space.
None of them are known for electric vehicles. So if you’re talking about who are you going to trust with making you an electric vehicle, I’m not going to trust a company that has no experience. Like that’s like, that’s like trusting Tesla. 10 years ago, that was a really hard like the people that were buying Tesla’s 10 years ago, which.
I think they had some little taps on the market, or even like when they had the Model S first come out in 2011 2012, right, the people that were buying those took a huge risk, because Tesla hadn’t really proven anything yet. So if you’re going to bet on somebody to make you an electric vehicle, you’re going to probably bet on the one that’s been doing this for years, right?
And and Tesla’s got a decade plus in the game now of building electric vehicles, and they’re the number one brand name by a mile in electric vehicles. Okay, there’s really not even a number two right now that you can say, oh, they’re the number two name and electric vehicles, there’s really not there’s them and there’s no one else.
Okay? Those are the number one data collector for vehicles on autopilot right now, or any type of autonomous mode, whatever you want to call it by other anybody else. There’s no there’s no one that’s collecting the sheer amount of data that Tesla has every single time somebody puts a car in autopilot or takes it off autopilot.
All those things are being recorded. All those things are in the system for Tesla to kind of understand That’s a massive, massive thing, guys, and we’ll talk about the value of all these in just a minute. Okay. They’re also the largest scale for building electric vehicles and batteries today, anyone in the entire world there’s also another there’s not another company that can literally just today build as many electric vehicles as Tesla.
Canada, as many batteries here today as tough. And then imagine when Tesla gets a Shanghai Giga factory up and running in a few months, okay, then imagine, you know, what, what test is going to be able to do? So these these ice, you know, auto manufacturers, they can produce a lot of ice vehicles today, they can produce 10s of 1000s, or maybe even hundreds of 1000s, or maybe even millions around the world, right?
Because they have a lot of factories, but those factories aren’t optimized or set up for electric vehicles. Okay, so there’s really no one else who can scale electric vehicles or battery technology, the way Tesla can here today. Okay, another fact is this company is over 100, extra revenues from 2011 to 2018.
Okay, they did 21 and a half billion dollars of revenue in 2018. And think about it, there’s no other company that I mean, how many other companies in the entire world that are public companies have over 100 extra revenues in that short amount of time, I cannot think of one company that’s over 100 extra revenues, that was a public company from 2011 to 2018.
Kids literally cannot think of them. Okay, so that’s unbelievable the type of skill they’ve gotten to in that’s just insane growth. Okay, that’s parabolic growth, we like to call in the stock market, but this is made the financials really hard to read.
And that’s another reason why the valuation, if you’re looking at valuation, everybody’s got different valuation for this company, it’s really hard to value this company, because the financials are all over the place. But think about it, this company just over 100 axed revenues in a seven, eight year span.
Once again, there’s no other public company I know of that has done that in that short amount of time. And especially, that’s a big tech company, okay, no one else. So if you’re looking at financials, and you’re trying to grade financials.
It’s not really going to be possible for a company that has scaled this quickly and has grown this quickly, they’re just going to be all over the place, the cash flow is going to be all over the place the income stream is going to, it’s just the way it is when you have that type of parabolic growth in the public markets, okay, they’ve also proven they can raise capital.
It’s a company that has proven time and time again, that they can raise capital whenever they want. Okay, billion dollars, 2 billion, 3 billion, it really doesn’t matter, it proven they can raise capital. So here’s the kind of situation around Teflon then we’ll go through kind of what I think these markets are worth for Tesla right now.
It’s really, really difficult to grade the financials. And so if you’re looking at the financials, you’re trying to figure out a valuation for Tesla. I think in my personal opinion, it’s just impossible right now, at 2020. And past it’s gonna be, you know, it’s gonna get a lot easier, because Tesla’s financials will become a lot more predictable, this type of crazy growth is going to slow down that’s still gonna grow for many years in the future.
Okay, once model y comes out in the semi in model three continues to ramp around the world, all those sorts of things. And then mind, you know, future products, Tesla is coming, you know, Tesla truck, things like that, by the way, I saw a really cool prototype of a Tesla truck recently that somebody did.
I was like, that was the first one I actually liked. But needless to say, 2020 and pass the financials will get easier to read, it’ll get much easier to value Tesla, but here today, so if you’re valuing Tesla here today, you have to kind of think about what the markets worth for some of these opportunities, and kind of like, like how Tesla’s doing in those, you know, specific scenarios.
Okay, so let’s get into that. Now. Already, guys. Now, let’s go ahead and break down these numbers. Let me share with you Like how much I think Tesla stock should be valued at here today. Okay, now, first thing you just got to kind of think about is all vehicles in the future will be electric vehicles.
If you don’t think all vehicles electric will in the future will be electric vehicles, and you can’t get to any type of valuation for Tesla, okay. And also, you’ve got to think all vehicles in the future are going to have basically autonomous features or, you know, basically full autonomy where the car drives itself, okay?
If you can’t mentally get to those places, then you can’t really get to a big valuation on Tesla, it’s just going to be impossible. Okay. But being that that’s where the markets going, that’s where all the trends are going. That’s where all the auto manufacturers think the markets going, you know.
I’m gonna probably go with where the everybody’s seeming to go. Okay, so here’s a situation number one volume seller and pure electric vehicles, number $1, share dollar share in electric vehicles by even a more substantial rate, right? They are the number one brand name in a mile and a half in electric vehicles.
Once again, all vehicles in the future that will be sold will be electric vehicles, just question of how many years it takes to get there, okay, the largest scale for building electric vehicles in batteries. And that seems to be you know, the rapidly increasing.
So if I’m valuing all those, I’m going to put about $100 billion valuation on it as of today, okay, as of today, because you’re going to think about if all vehicles in the future are going to be electric vehicles, right? Where do you want to be in that you want to be the number one player, that one that’s got more experience doing that than anybody?
The one that has the brand name by a mile in front of everybody, right? Do you want to be the one that has the most scale in this? Or do you want to be somebody trying to come in that space? If I’m having a bet on who’s going to probably stay the number one player in electric vehicles long term?
I’m gonna say it’s probably going to be Tesla and it’s going to be hard to dethrone these guys. I’m better I would go out and say it’s going to be a miracle to try and dethrone Tesla in terms of the dollar share in the fact that they are number one seller of volume of electric vehicles in the world because if I’m looking I’m looking at Tesla’s, you know, competitive position basically increasing over time.
So if I’m thinking about this, I’m thinking about where should I value Tesla as of here today, I’ve got to put $100 billion valuation just on where the company’s at right now, when it comes to electric vehicles, because the company is just so far out in front of everybody when it comes to everything electric vehicle related, okay, once again, if you don’t believe the markets going on toward electric vehicles in the future, then you can’t get to that place.
But anybody that has any common sense realizes like l cars in the future will be electric vehicles, and it’s going to be Tesla’s the main dog there, you know, it can be debatable, you know, who knows, maybe somebody can come dethrone them hard task, okay. Number two, the other part of their business.
I really value is the number one real world autonomy leader here today. Once again, we just talked about go to any other car, go try any other car in the world right now that you could actually buy off a parking lot off a dealership lock, and go tell me what they have, as far as their autonomy, you know, autopilot type modes versus a Tesla, and you’re gonna find it, there’s no one that’s even producing anything even comparable, okay.
And they’re the number one data collector right now for vehicles on autopilot, which means that the rate, they’re going to be able to get better when it comes to autonomous vehicles is going to be so much greater than anybody else that’s trying to come in the market.
It’s not just a tech related problem where you have to try to figure out the tech related, it’s also the chips you’re making, obviously, right? That Tesla has the most advanced chip for autonomous driving that literally, you know, possible, you can have out there right now, okay, they develop that themselves.
And then they have all this massive amounts of data they’re collecting around, you know, what, what’s a good move for a car to make? What’s a bad move all the cardijn recognize that over their whole car did recognize this, that was a good decision and things like that, right? So if you think about this, this should be at least a $20 billion valuation as of today.
Because if you think about people’s purchasing decisions going in future years, it’s not just going to be the fact that they’re thinking, Oh, I want to buy electric vehicle. So they’re gonna be thinking, I want to buy an electric vehicle that also has autonomy that can drive itself that.
I don’t even have to drive and things like that. Right. So they’re the number one leader in real world technology that’s happening today, in both those spaces, which is how today I get to evaluation on this company. Jeremy’s Tesla valued today, about 120 billion to 125 billion today, okay, once again, that’s not assuming, you know.
I think they’re gonna, they’re gonna have their valuation going to be much more substantial net in future years. But I think today, the company should be worth 120 to 125 billion, which, if it had that type of valuation today would have the stock price would be somewhere around $625, roughly, okay, and right now, it’s $190.
Stock, the market is significantly undervaluing Tesla, not even for where Tesla’s going in the future. But for where Tesla is today, in my personal opinion, you can’t value the financials as of right now, because the company has simply rapid, you know, it’s grown too rapidly to even even be able to justify a valuation for the financials.
As of right now, as the growth starts to slow, those will continue to grow for years in the future. But as their their growth rate is not 100 plus x over them, they’re not going to grow another 100x or, you know, over the next seven or eight years.
I can almost guarantee you that okay, which means our financials are going to get a lot easier to read. And then once the financials get easier to read, then the folks on Wall Street can start saying Oh, now I can see this. But right now if you’re valuing Tesla today, you can’t value off of financials, you have to value off of where the company is at their market leadership in these positions where the entire markets going, that’s how.
I get to a valuation of about 120 120 5 billion guys $600 stock as of today, in my personal opinion, and that’s why I’m buying the stock pretty heavily not making it my biggest position because it is still speculative, and they still do have to pull off more stuff but I’m absolutely making this a pretty big position.
I think it’s up to my six or my fifth biggest position, I might get it up to my fourth biggest position guys and that’s why I love this one. It’s just it’s just significantly undervalued in my personal opinion, okay, you just have to value it differently than you value an average company out there you can’t value the stock the same way you can value a Coca Cola and this is where everybody gets show tricked okay?
You can’t value this like Coca Cola Coca Cola doesn’t have growth this company grew 100x plus like this company is going after massive market you can’t value the same way you can value Google or Apple it’s just it’s just it’s apples and oranges. Okay, no, no pun intended. Okay, different situations there guys.
So anyways, let me know your opinion down there in that comment section on what you believe Tesla’s value is today, not where it’s going 10 years from now or five years from now what Tesla should be valued at today. I would love to hear from you guys. As always, thank you for watching. Have a great day.