Only 1 Day Until Tesla Earnings! What To Expect From Elon Musk & Tesla!
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Well howdy there cowboys and cowgirls. We only a few days away from the Tesla earnings. All right, the Tesla earnings are coming in a few days. And I want to go ahead and discuss what my expectations are around earnings per share in revenue for Tesla in this upcoming quarter, I want to go ahead and talk about what analysts are expecting if those numbers are way off.
So this is just gonna be a Tesla dedicated video all around this upcoming earnings report. Now, let me know if you have expectations for Tesla earnings, I want to hear them in the comment section. As always, by the way, make sure you enter the giveaway that’s going to be the pinned comment for the becoming master the stock market course Okay, let’s start getting this guy.
So if you do not already know, July 24, after hours, Tesla B will be reporting their q2 2019 results. Okay, now these are highly anticipated because this was a quarter that obviously a lot of the bears in a lot of analysts were expect is worse basically saying that this was going to be a horrible quarter that Tesla is going to miss numbers really bad that there’s no demand.
And so this is a very highly anticipated quarter because we’re going to finally see all the results in full. We’ve gotten some production numbers and delivery numbers that blew the roof off. But now we’re going to get to see what’s epcs like what’s revenue, like?
Okay, so we’re going to talk about that here fully. Now, just for those you guys who are wondering as want to show you as far as my two main accounts, I own Tesla, how we’re doing with that position. In one of our accounts, we own 150 shares, we’re up about 13.7 and 6%.
On those particular Tesla shares about 4000, just under $4,700. There, and on this particular account, we have 93 shares, and we’re up about 20 21% on that one. So we’re up over $4,000 there. So needless to say, as far as Tesla stock price, it has recovered a lot and now we’re in the green and in a very positive way.
And even if even if Tesla stock got hit on these earnings, we’d probably still be green on those share. So you know, things have started to go in the right direction. Never mind if they come out with some really good numbers, which we might just talk about here. Wait for to see what happens with that stock. Okay, so let’s go ahead and look at what analysts are expecting.
So analysts are expecting a negative 42 cent earnings per share number, which is obviously a very, very, very low expectation. Now what I think is interesting about this is just here today, in analysts at a super bearish on Tesla stock and has $150 price target their numbers that they expect are actually better than what the analysts on average.
Okay, so this Barclays analysts and analysts that a super negative on Tesla stock, they have an underweight rating on Tesla shares, they have $150 price target, like they’re super negative on Tesla in general. But basically, the firm raised its forecast for Tesla’s second quarter report to only a loss of 16 cents a share versus before they’re expecting a loss of 71 cents.
Now, keep in mind once again, right analysts on average are expecting a 42 cent loss. So that is pretty interesting in itself there that an analyst at a super bearish is actually expecting better numbers than what the average analyst out there is expecting, okay, that, you know, this is kind of ridiculous on how bearish they are on that stock.
Maybe they’re just doing that in hopes that Tesla will miss that number. And then they can say, See, Tesla couldn’t even hit our numbers. Okay, these bearish analysts, they they think about a lot of different angles, okay. Now, the other thing I want to look at here is a year ago, Tesla in the same exact quarter lost $3.06.
Okay, so regardless what Tesla loses whether we’re talking, you know, Tesla loses 50 cents, they lose, you know, 10 cents they break even then a profit, regardless, is pretty much going to be a massive improvement year over year in earnings per share, when you’re talking about losing $3.06 a share.
That’s a massive, massive number there. But you know, now things are getting a lot better for tests, I need to say on the bottom line, okay, now, what do I personally think when it comes to these numbers? Okay, here’s how I’m kind of thinking about it when it comes to these earnings per share number. If we think about this case, analysts once again, we’re thinking about like negative 42 cents on average.
Okay, so pretty negative quarter, and Tesla takes a pretty, you know, decent sized loss there, I have a hard time getting to a place where Tesla loses any kind of money, especially 42 cents a share in here’s why this quarter is likely a record quarter for production in deliveries, alright, and you got to think Tesla’s probably doing it the most effective way they’ve ever done okay.
When it comes to their production lines and everything across the board, if we look at their other two best quarters that company’s ever had in the company’s history, you have to go back to the fall time in the wintertime and those particular quarters they had $2.90 of positive APS and $1.93 of positive APS and we got to assume that this quarter is probably going to be just as good as those quarters if not better from a production delivery standpoint.
Right. And you know, we could talk about different DSPs for cars was one quarter you know, very heavy as far as like performance models was one quarter heavier for like these models and and we got to talk about leases and all those sorts of things. Okay, so it’s a very complicated and it’s not just an easy way you can you know, pinpoint and say this will for sure be as just as good or or you know, bad but one thing.
I can say is, it’s very hard for me to imagine Tesla takes loss and especially 42 cents a share loss in this quarter, they’re about to report when it’s probably going to be the best quarter ever, from a production delivery standpoint, and they’re probably doing it more efficiently than they’ve ever done it before. It’s really hard for me to get to a place where I say, yes, Tesla lost money and a decent chunk of money.
So in my personal opinion, when it comes to earnings per share, for this past quarter, I expect Tesla to have basically broken even, you know, kind of like maybe take a very, very, very small loss like five cents a share, or maybe like a five, seven positive number, or maybe actually, you know, make a profit at APS positive as far as like $1 dollar 50 or something like that.
So if I’m looking at that, that’s what I’m expecting. I’m expecting a breakeven quarter to actually a positive, you know, dollar dollar and 50 earnings per share. Now, if they come out with a better number than that, it’s going to blow everybody’s cowboy hats off.
Okay, if they come out with like a $3 positive ETS number one analysts are expecting negative 42 cents, people’s cowboy hats are going to fall off guys. It’s gonna be ridiculous. Okay, now let’s go ahead and talk about revenue. So average estimate from analysts, as far as revenue goes, is 6.4 2 million. Now, if they come in at that number that will be over 60% sales growth year over year. So just First off, that’s amazing.
Okay, if they just come in at what analysts are expecting 60% year over year revenue growth, that’s unbelievable number, like almost every auto manufacturer in the entire world right now is seeing their numbers actually either at breakeven levels, or negative.
And here you have Tesla, not only growing at double digits, but growing at 5060, maybe 70%. That is ridiculous. Okay, that is absolutely insane. Okay, now, what do I think in regards to revenue, so once again, I want to go back to their best quarter they’ve ever had in the company’s history when it comes to deliveries, and that would be the December quarter, they did $7.22 million in revenue in that particular quarter.
And in that particular quarter, a lot of those models were very base model model threes, okay, now also in this current quarter, they’re about to report. There are a lot of leases in there. So it gets a little confusing around what revenue numbers will actually be. But I have a very hard time seeing them basically do a 6.4. Like we talked about 6.4 2 billion is expected there. 7.2 was their best quarter they’ve ever had.
I have a hard time seeing any number under $7 billion. I have a hard time seeing it is certainly possible that they could report something in the sixes. But I have a hard time seeing them report anything under seven in this past quarter. That’s just really hard for me to see. Okay, nevermind. 6.42 I don’t know. I mean, still, it’s a phenomenal number year over year, even if they come in at 6.42.
But I’m honestly expecting a little better than that because of what they’ve done in their past previous best quarters. Okay, now there are some numbers that have salutely make me laugh. All right. If you look at what analysts are expecting next quarter, analysts are expecting revenue to actually be down four plus percent in the next quarter.
That once again, as I have a lot of trouble seeing tests ago negative revenue in the next quarter, it is certainly possible. But I have a hard time seeing the company go negative revenue in the next quarter negative 4%. That’s really tough to see. And I have a lot of doubts on if the company would actually go negative revenue next quarter watch to see if it happens.
I’m happy analysts are expecting a negative number because that makes it easier for Tesla to beat. But I have a hard trouble seeing that the number that really makes me laugh is next year, next year, analysts are expecting the company to only grow revenue by 21.6%, which once again 21.6% revenue growth is amazing for any other auto manufacturer out there because once again.
All other auto manufacturers are basically like like flatlining revenues, or actually seeing their revenues decline, you have Tesla, like even if they come in at 21%. That’s amazing. But I have a hard time seeing them not destroying next year’s numbers.
And here’s why you have Tesla Shanghai starting to ramp in the back half of this year, which essentially means at some point in 2020, that factory should be at full scale production in China.
Okay, that’s just a huge growth lever for Tesla, then you have model y going into production at some point in 2020 probably in the early to maybe mid 2020.
So you have all that demand you still got massive amount of people ordering model threes that have never bought a model three or never bought a Tesla product in the past or going ahead and leasing Tesla’s you still have Model S and Model X holding up there ends.
So it’s very hard for me to see an outside of a recession happening next year, it’s very hard for me to see Tesla only growing 21% next year, I think Tesla could very much grow 30 if not 40% next year, assuming like the global economy is just okay. And not that we’re in a recession and not that like things are going great because of model y and because that Shanghai factory those are two massive, massive factors.
Okay, so overall, I’m expecting a very positive earnings report. And I think when You’re dealing with Elan musk and you’re dealing with Tesla, you know, maybe some of these numbers could absolutely blow up. Anyways, once again, I want to hear your guy’s opinion on that Tesla earnings report in the comment section.
Don’t forget to get in the giveaway. All right, I want to hear your guy’s opinion down there. Make sure you smash that thumbs up button. If you’re a Tesla fan. Thank you for watching. Have a great day.