STOCKS IM BUYING | STOCKS IM WATCHING | STOCKS IM SELLING - SEPTEMBER 2019
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If this video gets 14 thumbs up or more I will go back to sleep and get some more rest. These kids woke me up too early and Im sleepy trying to release this video right now.
Today I give you a free episode from yesterday in my private stock market group. On Fridays we talk about what stocks Im buying now and why, what stocks Im selling and why, what stocks Im watching, and why along with stock market news stories I am paying attention to.
My goal with my private stock group is to put investors’ mentality’s in the right place along with teaching them everything I know. I have been in the stock market for over 10 years, so I have had a lot of ups but also some downs. I like to tell everyone what to avoid and what can trap them to lose a lot of money.
Way too many people get involved with the stock market and think way too short term. The name of the game to be a successful investor is always think long term and have a long term mindset, but understand why certain things are the way they are short term.
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Hey there YouTube I’m doing something pretty exciting for you guys. Today I’m releasing literally the entire video I did yesterday in my private stock market membership group for you guys this is a Friday video we always do videos on Fridays where I discussed you know different stocks and looking into different stocks.
I own the public account the dividend account and all those sorts of things so hope you guys really enjoy this this is just kind of like showing you guys I get questions a lot like what is the content like in there and this is literally like what a Friday video is like for us talking about different stocks and whatnot. On Mondays I actually do teaching lessons where.
I go into like teaching people different things and all videos are backlogged in there so meaning like if you join like you can watch videos I posted months ago learning different things for me and whatnot after this video if you’re interested in actually joining my private.
Stock market membership group that is linked down there in the description we love to have you part of it we have over 400 members in there now and just wanted to kind of you know do something for you guys and show you what that is like so hope you enjoy it smash that thumbs up button on the video if you enjoy me actually sharing this with you guys here today and share this out with somebody All right, enjoy it Well howdy there guys.
I hope you’re doing great out there as always got a lot to discuss in today’s video anything you want to discuss let’s go ahead and discuss it in the discord chat as always let me know if you guys made any moves in the market this week any buy orders and sell orders, let me know in the discord chat.
We’d love to hear from you guys as always, and with that being said, let’s start getting into this. As always, let’s start out here looking at the public account. So here’s what we’re looking at still 140 shares of Baba up about 10% on those ones cruisey doozy up 35% of 915 shares elephant a shelf up 124% on 1250 shares Facebook up 21% on 371 shares fizzy get dizzy down 2% on 610 shares.
I robot one of our newest actually I think that is our newest position right around break even on that one 140 shares Nordstrom down 7.7% on 370 shares skyworks Solutions right around breakeven 650 shares tapestry up about two 3% on 445 shares Tesla right around breakeven 150 shares and Wynn resorts right around break even 123 shares they’re about 36,000 in the account in total something that would be interesting is.
I want to show you guys like all the realized gains and losses as you guys have seen throughout 2019 but just in like a compact form so we can see it all in one place. And what we’re gonna see here I want to talk a little bit about this Okay, so total gain on the year as far as stock sold $9,416 in this particular account.
Which let me just first off say for that number that’s a pretty you know, decent number you know, being that this account is maybe I don’t even think it’s two years old yet i think is approaching two year old account. So I think as time goes on, the gains will get bigger and bigger as far as the cells because you think about it like you know, you fast forward into the future.
And some of these positions have been built for years and a lot of the bullish thesis is may have already played out for them and so you get to sell for big gains. So if I look at you know total what were we’ve done basically in that account for realized gains so far $9,416 you know.
I can’t sneeze at that. I want to talk about a couple cells here that we’ve made in the count and you know specifically as far as the you know, ones that have you know hurt us us steel and at home group but I really want to focus in on US Steel in the elf beauty sells.
Okay, so you know you can look at us steel and say man that was a bad sell in elf duty and say well that was a bad you know that was a great sell because you made a lot of money and US Steel you lost a lot of money but actually in both those situations.
I think inversely on that okay, the US Steel sell was a phenomenal sell. Because when we sold that stock that was like a $23 stock somewhere roughly around there. Versus now us Steel’s like a $10 stock or $11 stock or something insane Okay, so the the amount of money we would have lost if we stayed in US Steel instead of just saying hey.
I think I messed up on that one. Let me get out now. is ridiculous. Like like that was one of the best sells I’ve ever had in the stock market even though we lost the you know a 4000 bucks in this position it was just a phenomenal sell. And then if you look at elf beauty is a man that is so smart to sell.
Allow you so you know look at all those profits but a lot of those shares that were sold in elf were sold in the 12 $13 range and you know now the stocks at 16 $17 and a lot of those shares I wish I could you know basically get back and I wish I didn’t sell them so sometimes you will make you know decisions selling stocks and sometimes they might look like the correct decision or the incorrect decision.
But sometimes ultimately in the end, you might have actually messed up or you might actually made the right decision even if it looks like you took a loss because sometimes like like we’re talking about US Steel like we would have been down five figures plus on US Steel had we not cut our losses when we didn’t say we messed up on that one.
I don’t like that where the way that one’s going. Let me get out now as a commodity stock Am I doing messing around with commodity stocks? And then with elf, you know, I just started selling those shares too early in my personal opinion, the company just had more upside and the way they’re, you know, reinvigorating that brand is just unbelievable.
They’re so, you know, but anyways, that’s where we’re at, as far as you know, stocks that have actually sold, you know, if we sold out the entire portfolio, we’d book, you know, another $36,000 in profit, roughly. So then that would put us into a range of something like $45,000 in gains this year, just from this one account.
So, you know, definitely can’t complain about that. Right. Now, the newest account we just started was that a few weeks ago, that is the dividends only account. And so we only have three stocks in this account, as of right now, you know, hey, it’s only been around for a few weeks.
So it’s not like we’re ever massive account going already. But JW n is doing pretty good for us about 2.45% tapestry up nearly 10% already on that position in this account. And what did it mean resorts is up 4.67% in the account, in total, we’re up just over 5% on that, which is really like a much better performance than I would have thought like this account literally is a few weeks old to already be at 5%.
On that it’s good. As far as like looking at this account for a longer term perspective, we got to always remember, whenever you know, fidelity accounts, you know, basically you does that total gain loss number that’s just on what the stocks are doing as far as the stock price is that doesn’t even factor in dividends.
So in that, you know, specific account with the dividends, we got to always add in a three to 5% extra gain for dividends basically in that account each and every year, because most of the stocks that will be held in that account will pay dividends yearly of about a 3% to 5% rate. So you know, let’s say we get a 10% gain per year in that account in total. Well, really, that was like 13% to 15%.
Because when you factor in those dividends, so when I look at that account, I’m really excited. I’m really excited to see where it goes. I’m really excited to see if it underperforms or outperforms our overall, you know, regular brokerage account. As I told you guys.
I think the regular brokerage account will outperform the dividend account, if we look on a longer term basis, but we’ll have to see what happened. Like who knows, maybe the dividend account actually outperforms not only the stock market in general, but actually outperforms my my regular brokerage account, and we’ll have to see Time will tell on that whole situation.
Okay. Next thing I want to talk about here for a moment is at home. So as you guys know, you know, we decided to make the decision to you know, cut at home, take the little loss on that one and say, you know, it is what it is? Reason, the main reason was I just couldn’t you know, sleep at night with the balance sheet.
Well, I mean, it wasn’t that bad, where I literally couldn’t sleep at night, but I was thinking about it way too much. I was thinking about this home position way too much and worrying about the balance sheet and all those sorts of things.
And when you’re when you’re in that situation, it’s just bad. Okay, but the reporting earnings on September 4, okay, Wednesday, September 4, the reporting earnings. And so you know, some of you guys are shareholders of home, I know some of you guys have bought the stock, I hope you didn’t just buy the stock because I was buying the stock, that’s always a bad decision, buy the stock because you believe in it.
But I know a lot of you guys are shareholders, okay, and they got these earnings coming up this upcoming week, you know, in a few days from now. So I’m thinking like, if I’m looking at the quarterly results, we’ll see what happens with that if I had to guess they’re probably not going to be very impressive as far as you know what they’re going to report for this past quarter.
But the one good thing, the one good thing for at home and at this point in time, is they’re going into the stronger seasons, okay, in the fall in wintertime is a strong season, why Halloween decorations, fall time decorations, christmas decorations, all those sorts of things are what really drives accompany like at home.
I mean, you know, people go there for decorations and stuff for their house in general most of the year, but it’s really a business that can thrive on those folks that are going in for Halloween decorations, fall time decorations, and Christmas decorations.
That’s just a massive, massive industry where people want a theme their home around Christmas, and Halloween and fall time and those sorts of things. So that is the one really good thing for at home, if you’re looking on a short term basis is they are about to go into their strongest two quarters, which is fall time into the Christmas quarter.
Okay, so that’s good news for them. But, you know, they obviously still have issues with the balance sheet at the end of the day. So we’ll have to see what happens with that. I just want to kind of address that with you guys. You know, let me know if you guys are holding home shares in the discord chat.
I would love to hear from you guys, as always, and kind of what your thoughts are around those earnings. All right, Uber, Uber, just want to talk about Uber for a moment here. It’s getting more and more intriguing. As the weeks passed, the stock continues to fall and fall and fall is down to you know, $32 level now.
And so as I’ve told you guys, I’m very interested in Uber if you can start falling in the 20s if Uber stocks falls in the 20s guys, I’m gonna have to start buying the stock because at the end of the day, I see Uber as a massive cash cow business in the future strictly because there’s just it’s so hard for competitors to come in this space.
And so if you look at like The US market, you have Uber and you have Lyft. And those are the only two guys competing at this point in time. And I think they both want to make a lot of money. And so they’re both going to be able to raise the prices of rides over time.
And they’ll end up you know, getting to a place where they’re very, very profitable, Uber Eats will continue to be a drag on the business for quite a while longer, because Uber Eats, Alou, Uber Eats is losing like, you know, two to $3 each time somebody placed an order, it’s losing a ridiculous amount of money right now.
So it will continue to be a drag on the business. But when I think about the driving business, you know, that’s going to be a straight cash cow business when I look at the company overall, over time and whatnot. So I’m very interested in Uber, but the company has to.
You know, the the stock basically has to drop more for me to really, you know, once it gets into the 20s, which I think has a very good chance of getting in the 20s this fall with everything that was happening with you know, executives being able to start selling out and insiders and all those sorts of things, very high probability, it could fall in the 20s.
And I would be interested in starting to buy the stock. All right, Tesla, I want to talk about a few things around Tesla. So first off, Tesla insurance officially launched in California this week. And as far as Tesla insurance goes, big opportunity there.
That is a really, really big opportunity. Tesla insurance over time, if you really think about the insurance market overall, and the type of data, you know, Tesla could specifically have, especially if it’s, you know, Tesla insurance on a Tesla car, that type of data, and maybe you could, you know, give Tesla data to your cars.
So basically, it feeds, okay, they’re driving this much, how often do they drive unsafely and things like that, and it could feed in Imagine if then you can get insurance rates based upon like, like what’s going on with, you know, how you’re driving the car, or if you have self driving on the car, maybe you get a lower rate, and things like that.
So it can get very, very intriguing. As Tesla insurance business is not something that overnight, I expect to be just a massive business, I think it’s just going to be a slow build over time. And who knows, maybe five years down the road, 10 years down the road, Tesla could become one of the biggest players in auto insurance, we’ll have to see, I’m not putting my eggs in one basket.
Like as far as my Tesla investment, it has nothing to do with, you know, the insurance business at the end of the day, or really mostly, you know, it doesn’t even really have anything to do with an energy side of the business. It just, you know, my Tesla investment, as you guys know, is around the mass amounts of electric vehicles, I’ll be able to, they’ll be able to sell over the next five to 10 years.
But if you kind of think about it, like Tesla is trying to go you know more and more than Apple Amazon route, when it comes to like vertical integration, they want to do everything themselves, you know, whether it’s selling you the car, or superchargers, or service, they’re not trying to outsource anything insurance now in and they just want to go next step, next step, next step.
And that’s really how you build a really, really massive tech company, the more you can vertically integrate in the business overall is the more you can grow that pie overall guys, so you know, excited about that. But you know, it’s nothing that’s making me go buy the stock or sell the stock or something like that.
It’s just, it’s gonna be intriguing to watch where it goes over the coming years. Okay, just something completely random. I saw here, Tesla Model three, actually, basically is going to be used by a police force now, actually in Indiana, and they broke down the cost of this car. And it’s actually far cheaper the based upon with the numbers they did, then, you know, basically the Dodge Charger.
So I thought that was a pretty intriguing thing out there. You know, police forces may be moving, you know, using model threes down the road. You know, that could be a big that could be a big, you know, when you think about how many police cars in the United States of America, and the model three could become like the primary player there, you know, that’s a massive, massive opportunity for the company overall.
Once again, not a thing that’s making me go buy the stock or sell the stock, but it is intriguing, and it is pretty cool to see something like that. Okay, rather than those guys. I mean, think about how much those police cars drive around. I mean, it’s much better to just, you know, be on electric.
Another intriguing thing I saw this week was looking at this here, somebody’s got video of another person, a Tesla car sleeping while driving. Okay, these videos are always funny to kind of see, the one thing I will say about this is Oh, gosh, it’s great branding for self driving.
It’s a it’s a best branding in the world for Tesla. I mean, I don’t say it’s, you know, I think anybody should go do this and sleep while the tests are driving around. But when you really think about it, this is the best branding ever. Whenever.
I hear these stories of somebody sleeping, while their Tesla’s driving on, it’s like, off the charts like branding, because no one else even has like those type of capabilities in their car, right? So like, the fact that the car is driving itself is like.
Completely foreign and people and when you have these attention grabbing things, like somebody’s sleeping in the cars driving them, in my opinion, from a branding standpoint, it’s really off the charts, because you know, these things go viral, and somebody’s sleeping where their cars driving, and people are just like, what, so.
Tesla, you know, not only do they have the brand name around electric vehicles, they’re the biggest brand name by far in the world when it comes to self driving vehicles, because a lot of these posts go viral. People are like, what if people aren’t really up on what’s going on as far as like knowing that.
Tesla’s can do you know, much of the drive For you maybe not all the driving but much of it if people aren’t up to date on that and they don’t already know that they likely see one of these viral posts and they’re like wait what that that car that was a Tesla it drives the person how are they sleeping?
What and they start like researching and they’re like what this car drives itself it’s it’s braining off the charts Okay, I just want to talk for a second here about like the stocks I’m looking at the most in terms of you know adding shares up and this is kind of in order as of right now you know trading prices right now fizzy that’s probably the the stock I’m most interested in buying right now.
As far as you know, adding additional shares I could potentially add some fish stock maybe in the dividend is only account but I’m not sure if that one you know constitutes is a dividend stock because they only pay once a year and it’s not ever a guaranteed thing.
So I’m like if I add fins to that portfolio and they only pay once a year does it you know and who knows maybe they don’t pay I’m not sure if I want to add phase to the dividends only account but I am interested adding more fish shares in my private accounts as well as the main public account there JW n definitely interested in adding more shares there and then.
I robot we just started buying that one I’m interested in adding some more shares there All right, now we got to talk about Ulta beauty for a minute okay, ticker symbol UL t a stock fell 30% today. Unbelievable, right? I did a video talking a lot about the stock. I just released it literally on financial education to right now.
And I talked a lot about the stock and my opinion on the stock and whatnot. But what it didn’t talk about was the earnings and what sent the stock down so big so let’s talk about that now. Okay, so shares about the beauty obviously tanked.
After the company reported earnings after the bell on Thursday that missed analysts expectations and slashed its outlook for the fiscal year, the company said that the cosmetics industry has struggled as a whole this cycle because there haven’t been innovative beauty routines that drive consumers to purchase products as much as they normally do.
CEO Mary Dillon said she believes industry wide challenges will continue in the near term, leading the company to lower its earnings and revenue growth guidance. And I will say you know, since I became an elf shareholder, I’ve become much more interested in the makeup industry and like looking at what these different companies are doing in the makeup industry in general. You have it’s it’s interesting, right?
You have a lot of the old players there, you know, the high end players like the Estee Lauder, you have, you know, the the Maybelline and those those cheap players, right, that sell into Walmart and Target and Walgreens. And a lot of these players aren’t doing a lot of interesting stuff. Let’s be quite frank, okay, they’re kind of coming out with the same product.
And then you’ve had the influencers the beauty influencers, you know, whether it’s instagram people, YouTube people have, you know, flooded the market with their own products over the past couple of years. And those will kind of, you know, kind of breed some some innovation into you know, what was going on from the traditional standpoint. But overall, there’s not a lot of like, exciting stuff going on.
But if I look at like, what elf is doing and some of their product packaging and their marketing and whatnot, I’m like that is really really innovative. And I watch you know, people that their life kind of revolves around makeup, they do make videos and whatnot and when they speak of the elf products, and the things that we’re doing around some of their summer products and whatnot that like it’s such a you know.
Breath of fresh air because the makeup industry can be so stale and it’s just like the same product same products, the same look the same feel and you have elf doing some things that are really innovative in the makeup industry and it excites people and makes people say I gotta go buy, you know, the elf makeup because this is some cool packaging.
This is a cool look. And this is a cool product, and you know, it’s affordable and things like that. So I’m really impressed what elf is doing, but I can understand why Ulta you know, has some kind of negative things to say about the industry in general because there’s not a lot of innovation and excitement going on in the makeup industry right now outside of really else.
Okay, as far as the earnings went here, so adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.76 versus 280 was expected so slight Miss there, it’s not like that much of a mess. I mean four cents, four cents, revenue came in at 1.6 7 billion versus 1.68 was expected. Now another very very slight mess. Same store sales Miss pretty good.
They came in at 6.2% versus 6.6% was expected no those that’s amazing number like 6.2% same store sales rise, amazing. Any retailer or restaurant that gets a 6.2% number. That’s amazing. But when 6.6% was expecting your growth stock, it’s not obviously the ideal situation.
Okay, the company lowered its earnings forecast to a range of 1186 to $12.06 per share from a prior range of 1282 to 1303. It also cut its revenue growth expectations to between nine and 12%. Previously it said it expected low double digit growth kind of meaning like you know, 10 to 13% or something like that.
So they brought numbers down across the board epcs numbers, revenue numbers everything there. You know, that’s why you know, it’s gross stock and it’s in retail industry, retail. If people get any, you know, site of bad news around a retailer, these stocks get absolutely obliterated right now remember what happened with that home?
That stock went from 20 something dollars a share to $6 a share $5 share it like within one to two months time three months time, like it was ridiculous, right? Like, like that’s like a 70% fall in literally a few months time. It’s insane. It’s absolutely insane. And you look at an elf or excuse me ultra stock today is a 30% haircut in a day.
That is that’s a ridiculous number. But when you’re dealing with retail right now, any sign of weakness in the stocks get absolutely destroyed. That is what essentially happened here with Ulta. It’s getting to an interesting point. Am I going to buy Ulta tomorrow? Absolutely not. Will it buy ultra down the road?
It is a potential buy great balance sheet, great management team, great overall business model, but the valuation is not quite there for me to say yeah, let me go buy some ultra shares or something like that, but it’s getting much more intriguing guys. You want to talk about anything we discussed in today’s videos.
Go ahead and do it in the discord chat, as always, along with anything else you guys want to ask me over there. Go ahead and chat about it over there. All right. Thank you for watching and have a great day.