Stock Market Crash part 2 is Coming! Get Ready!
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There is another stock market crash coming in my opinion! This one will be even worse than the last stock crash we went through. Things are just not adding up. The stock market has gone up huge from the lows and the economy will likely take years to get back to where it was.
The FED is helping out the situation but it can’t force people to go spend money when things do start back up. The recession of 2020 will likely continue into a recession of 2021. The after the recession is over things will start to come back, but will take time for stock’s earnings to get back to where they were.
The NASDAQ will likely fall big from here. The S&P 500 will likely fall big from here. The dow jones industrial average will likely fall big from here. I don’t think anything can save it unless things come back to 2019 levels overnight and I highly doubt that will happen. I could be wrong… but I doubt it. Smash a thumbs up and have a great day. Patience.
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Yes there is another stock market crash coming in my opinion and in today’s video I want to explain exactly why I believe there’s another stock market crash coming and this one will be worse than the one we just went through. Okay, I’m gonna go all into details on this hope you guys enjoy this video. As always, I forgot to say yesterday so let me say today smash that thumbs up button.
Let’s start getting to this guys. Okay, two things we got to cover before we get into this video. Okay, the first is I could be completely wrong about this. Okay, I’m going to show you a lot of data in this video, I’m gonna give you a lot of opinion and I could be absolutely wrong. Maybe the stock market crash doesn’t come maybe from here we’re just up and away and everything’s grand.
Okay, so I could be 100% wrong. So I just want to say that so don’t make any decisions based upon what I tell you in this video. Think about it for yourself make your own decisions out there Okay, as you guys probably know I’m not putting any more money in the market I haven’t for pretty much the last like two or three weeks and I’m interested in being on the sidelines I have a lot of money invested in the stock market but in terms of new money.
I’m sideline stay in for right now. I’m sideline watching, okay, but I could be wrong about this. Maybe with the next stock market crash doesn’t come I just want to put that out there as a disclaimer. So make your own decisions, make your own judgments.
Okay, the last thing I want to cover a lot of people watching the channel right now that aren’t super familiar with me and my content on the channel. I am somebody that’s super bullish. Okay, I am super bullish. It’s like I got a bull on my shoulder almost all the time.
Okay, why Why am I always pretty much optimistic, and super bullish woman optimistic person for one? Okay. I always look at the glass half full, as they say, right. Not just that. I mean, it pays to be bullish most of the time. Where’s the stock market go most years up?
Where do stocks go most times up? Okay. You know, great companies were what happens to great companies, they 5x 10x 20x 100x are stock prices over a course of five to 10 years. So it pays to be bullish most of the time. But let me just tell you, I’m the least bullish I’ve ever been okay.
I’m no Doomsday person out there that like just puts out scary content to put out scary content. There’s that side of YouTube’s exists, and I know those channels and they just you know, doesn’t matter what type of market is there always preaching negativity and doomsday scenarios and all this and that.
I’m definitely I’m probably the furthest thing from that if there’s ever like a hate comment, I get a lot. It’s like you’re too bullish. You’re too optimistic on blah, blah, blah. Okay, right now, I’m the least optimistic and the least bullish I’ve ever been in my 11 or 12 years I’ve been in the stock market, the least bullish in by far, it’s not even close.
Okay. It’s not even close between all the other times in kind of what I’m feeling right now. And when I look at this data, okay, so I just wanted to cover those, you know, before we start getting into this, okay, so as of yesterday, the NASDAQ was down 6% year to date, and the s&p 500 was down 12% here today, okay, that’s as of yesterday, and most years, I would look at that now say, we need to be buying stocks.
Man, that’s a dang good deal. There’s got to be a countless amount of deals out there. Okay. That is phenomenal. I love this. I love this market. Okay. This is a different scenario. This is this is this is way, way different than the average year and if this was happening, I would just be buying stocks. Okay, let’s be honest, we had a Lego tower built to the sky.
And it’s just completely fallen down now. Okay, but Lego pieces are everywhere for us to step on with our foot and go out. Okay, that’s what the scenario is. Now, we had a Lego tower to this guy, like three months ago, like literally three months ago, the Lego tower was standing. Everything was looking great.
And then Roni roenick came right in it just cause mass devastation. And that’s the wrong right there. Okay, it’s just mass devastation. And what I feel like we’re in right now, we’re in like, around like, the eye of the hurricane, where the stock market is kind of treating this like, you know, hey, it’s not that bad, blah, blah, blah.
And, and, and I’m just looking and I’m like, we haven’t even gone through the full storm yet. We still got we still got to see what the devastation is. We can’t even see the devastation yet. We’re still in the storm. Okay, we’re still in the huge storm.
And when it finally does end, and when businesses finally start to open, we’ll get to see what the devastation was okay, we’ll get to see what the devastation was no different than if you’re in a tornado situation, right? Shout out to my people that live in Tornado Alley, or whether you live in you know, a park that you know, has huge hurricanes or something like that.
You don’t know what the depth is. You go to your bunker or whatever you go hiding. You don’t know what the devastation is until you’ve the storms past, you come out and then you say, Oh, my gosh, my hometown just got blown down. Okay. That’s what happens and that’s the economy right now.
That’s the stock market right now, with no one no one knows. No one’s really like like being able to go out there yet. We’re just in the eye of the storm, and eventually we’re going to get to see Okay, now let’s start going through some more data.
Okay, let’s start looking at some data. So the market trades off a few things trades off confidence in the markets in general trends. have what’s called like, like forward estimates for basically what earnings will likely be in the s&p 500.
If what we’re looking at here forward 12 month estimates for s&p 500 would put it at like 18.81. And I can tell you that number is way higher than that. Numbers dramatically low. Okay? That’s ridiculous. Okay, the market trades off s&p 500 for PE estimates, and I can tell you that number way too low.
It’s way higher than that. And I mean, dramatically higher, I’m talking probably, you know, at least 50% 100% higher, keep in mind that’s taken the next 12 months, okay, so it’s taking this this, this quarter we’re in, which is a horrible quarter.
Next quarter is going to be just as bad if not worse, and then the two remaining quarters after that, and I’m just looking at that, and I’m like, Whoa, those numbers are way, way off from from you know, what they have basically, they’re on the WSJ.
Okay, that’s just insane. Okay. Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs. And this was a few weeks ago, they came out and did this, they might have brought down numbers since then, okay. But Goldman Sachs put out there that they believe s&p 500. corporate earnings in 2020, would be $165, which was down from their previous estimate of 174. And I can tell you dream on about that number.
Dream on, we’re not even going to get anywhere remotely close to that number, my personal opinion, on $165, that’s going to be a joke, Wells Fargo investment Institute, they put out their numbers, they believe s&p 500 earnings for 2020 would be $166. compared to previous view, which was 172.
I can’t, you know, I think had a bet between me and them, I would probably place every dollar, I have to my name on the fact that we hit those numbers, guys. I mean, we won’t even get remotely close to those numbers. In my personal opinion, that’s just an actual joke, in my opinion, we’re gonna be lucky, we’re gonna be lucky if we have $75 of s&p 500 earnings in 2020.
In my personal opinion, we’ll be lucky, lucky if we get $75. Okay, these estimates from all these analysts around what 2020, you know, earnings will be for the s&p 500, they all need to come down in a massive, massive way. And I mean, I mean, in really, they can’t come down that much as of right now, because why they haven’t heard anything from the companies.
And if you haven’t heard anything from the companies, then you really don’t know as an analyst, how much to bring your numbers down. So they’ve been bringing their numbers down a little bit. But just wait until some of these executives start putting out some of the numbers that are actually coming in. And what they expect.
That is when that is when the analysts will start to readjust their numbers and bring them down massively. And when these analysts are bringing down their their earnings estimates massively, especially when they all are going to be doing it at once, which will happen in my opinion, that’s when you’re going to get a massive, massive sell off in the stock market.
Okay, we’re going to be lucky to do $120 of earnings in my personal opinion for the s&p 520 21 $120. Why do I believe this? Well, okay, what when business does open back up, whether it starts opening back up in May, June, July, August, regardless, whenever things start opening back up, it’s not like all the businesses are going to be back to 100% capacity.
It’s not even like they’re going to be remotely close to that. Keep in mind, unemployment rates are going to be ridiculously high. And the longer and longer this goes, the worse and worse things are going to be right. I mean, things are already you’re going to be really, really bad since we’re going to if we start in May, if we have to wait till June to restart the economy, things are going to be even worse, unemployment rates will be even higher.
And it’ll take even a longer time to bring it down. Don’t take even a longer time to get corporate earnings back. We’re talking years, not months. Okay. I think we’re gonna be very lucky to do $120 of earnings for the s&p 500 in 2021. Okay, let’s go ahead and work out some numbers and say that’s it, you know, we’ll see where the s&p 500 closes out today, let’s say the s&p 500 closed at about, you know, 20 2800.
Okay, go ahead and do the math on that $120 of earnings. And we’re basically sitting at 23.3 2021. Pe when it comes to the the forward estimates. That’s rich. Okay, that’s really rich. And keep in mind, I think we’re going to be lucky. I think we’re going to be fortunate if we can do $120 in 2021, because of you know how high unemployment rates will still likely be in 2021.
How much GDP will still need to recover how much of a mess the business landscape we’ll still be in 2021 because this has gone on for so long, that it’s just going to be tough as we start to climb out of it’s going to be a very very tough situation. Nevermind that. Imagine if the Roni Rona takes back off in the fall, and we have to close down business again.
You know, that that number, that number of $120 won’t even won’t even, you know, be in consideration at that point time. Okay. So I think $120 of earnings for the s&p 520 21 I think that is Uh, you know, I think that’s fair, but I think that might actually be a little bit aggressive in Meanwhile, the stock market the past three weeks is like a kid at Disneyland.
That’s what it’s like. I mean, it’s just acting like Whoo. You know, this is happy times, man. This is happy times look at the s&p 500 since it bottom around, you know, March 23, March 24. It has basically been up in a straight line. It hits that bottom of 2200 and then yesterday is trading well over 2800 Are you kidding me? In this environment?
That’s That’s incredible. The Dow Jones Industrial Average it bottoms at 18. Three and yesterday is trading at over 24,000 over 24,000 or what 5600 5700 move upward in a matter of a three week span and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. That’s just ridiculous.
The Nasdaq the NASDAQ composite same exact situation, it bottoms out 6600 Next thing you know yesterday is trading over 8500 the stock markets in fairytale land in the end and we don’t have anything good to say we don’t have anything good to say out there.
I can tell you that everything is bad news, bad news, bad news, and it’s real bad news. It’s not made up let’s just let’s just you know talk about some scary stuff. Now. This is this is real talk. Okay, homebuilder Confidence Index tiggs biggest monthly dive ever, ever unemployment rate is skyrocketing to the worst numbers we’ve seen ever.
We’ve never seen jobless claims come in this fast in at this level or even remotely close to this ever. Okay? This isn’t like this is all it’s just kind of bad compared to No no, this is these are worst ever GDP. The worst ever numbers we’re going to get for GDP. Okay.
You know, Goldman Sachs was talking about GDP declined in the US of 11% from a year ago. I think that’s way too optimistic. I think that’s way too optimistic. I think it’s going to be way worse than that. Okay. And GDP next quarter is just going to be awful.
I mean, absolutely abysmal. It’s gonna make every other GDP decline we’ve ever had in the history United States look like it was absolutely nothing Okay, absolutely nothing. And so the the let’s get this right, okay. Unemployment, you know, the the jobless claims, worst ever, homebuilder confidence, worst ever, business confidence in generals, especially if you think about the next year or two, probably worst ever, GDP declines worst ever, by far and away.
And once again, the stock market has been climbing the past few weeks. Okay. Now, here’s the interesting thing. Let’s go back. Let’s go back to the 2007 through 2009 recession, which keep in mind, I think what we’re in right now is way more dramatic.
And I don’t just think that look at the numbers, like the numbers of proof in the pudding like it’s it’s way it’s way, way, way worse, right. But we go ahead and look at a stock chart. This is basically showing you the s&p 500 from 2007 through 2009.
During the Great, you know, financial crisis, whatever you want to call it, the housing crisis, right? We saw some nice pickups in the market throughout that stock market crash. Okay, we got that initial fall in the market, which wasn’t nearly as dramatic as the one we experienced, obviously, like two months ago, right, but we got that initial fall in the market.
And then the market actually bounced back almost to new highs, it literally did. And then things started to go down and get worse and worse. And then we had a nice bounce back. And next thing you know, the s&p 500 is trading back over 1400. And it’s like an like, Okay, then we have another big fall, okay.
But then the market starts roaring back. And next thing we know we’re over 1300. And then finally, the bottom falls out. And next thing you know, the you know, the s&p 500 is trading under 900. And we have a little spike up back to 1000. Before we get another fall all the way down to under 800.
And then we have a nice spike up again. And it looks like okay, we’re coming out of this and we get over 900. And then we have the one last granddaddy of them all fall, which knocked everybody pretty much the stock market that was in at that particular time because it was just like this is ridiculous is too painful.
And s&p 500 falls under 700. Okay, incredible, absolutely incredible when you go back and you look at that stock chart, because there were plenty of times and the stock market was bouncing back and it was looking like okay, we’re up in a way now. And it was just got worse. And it was up up and away.
And it just got worse, several times that happened. And so I think when we’re looking at the current situation, I think we got to take that into context. So yeah, the markets bounce back, you know, 5000 6000 points, boom, boom, boom, real quick. Yeah, that might just we just might be part of a much bigger fall.
Let’s just put it that way. Okay. The stock market was was kind of doing what it should have done. Okay. It felt super dramatically because we had a super dramatic situation where it was like, Oh, my gosh, all of a sudden, the roenis taken off the Ronan’s situation we’re gonna have to shut down the whole US economy. Oh, we’re gonna shut down the whole world economy.
Oh my gosh, you know, this is this is you know, devastation like this is crazy. And so stock market kind of reacted the way it should have it. was the fastest stock market drop. And you know, in history, literally, there was no other time you can go back to throughout history with the stock market fell in that much that fast it was like 22 trading days in the market have fallen like 35%.
Plus, it was incredible. But honestly, when you look back at it, it should have done that, because we just had a shocked situation. And we were coming from a pretty well, let’s be honest, we were coming off on an elevated market, that was pricing in a great 2020. And all sudden, we got the worst case scenario.
So that was warranted. In my opinion, after that happened, we should have hovered around that same price we should have hovered under 20,000 for you know, the next week or two until we got to see kind of how much longer things were gonna have to go cuz there were still some optimism that maybe we could open up an April remember, remember Trump even mentioned, you know, maybe we’ll open up for Easter.
And then that started to fade and then was like, maybe we’re looking more toward like May or June, before we get the economy open. And I think that was when we should have seen another big decline in the market toward the back half of March or really like the beginning of April.
I think that’s and I think we should, I think we should have just seen the market go down and down and down and down, in my opinion, where let’s say the Dow Jones Industrial Average should be I think the Dow should be right now at 16k to like 17k.
I think that’s where the market should be right now, I think to be trading at 23,000 24,000, like the Dow Jones Industrial averages. I think it’s just ridiculous. And I think you know, the market will will readjust, keep in mind, stocks can be overvalued for a certain amount of time, the stock market in general can be overvalued for a certain amount of time.
But eventually, things get priced accurately or get priced under priced. Okay. And I can tell you at 16,000 17,000, I would be a buyer of the market, because I would be looking at a lot of these companies. And despite the devastation we have to go through over the next few years. And we have to work through that.
I would be saying, you know what, there’s some great deals out there that I’ve got to go ahead and take advantage. But right now in this market, when we’re a doubt 23 24,000 when the s&p 500 is around 2800 when the NASDAQ’s down what six 7% year to date, when we’re looking at that type of market, it doesn’t make me say, I’ve got to go buy stocks right now, it really doesn’t.
It’s just not that type of market. It’s just the stock market isn’t giving us any good deals. And, you know, you can make an argument that even if the market was at 16k 17k, we still might not be getting that great a deal considering this could take three years to climb out of this, or five years climb out of this. If you know, I think it’s I think it’s really hard to say these companies, Ernie is going to be back to, you know, 2019 levels in 2021.
I think that’s a that’s a fairy tale, maybe 2022. But I think that’s even a question. I think if you’re thinking about these companies getting back, you know, not all of them will get back, but the ones that will get back to those 2019 levels, you could be looking at, like 2023 for a lot of these companies.
And that’s why I feel the market should be dramatically, dramatically lower than it is. And I think it will happen, I think we will get this stock market crash. Once business that opens back up and people start figuring out, whoa, okay, it’s not back. Yeah, we open but our business is down considerably.
And we can’t see it getting that much better. anytime soon. I think when that happens, that will be the moment when the stock market will start dropping again. And it will shock everybody because it keep in mind. A lot of a lot of traders had pegged this as a situation where oh my gosh, all the bad news is gonna start coming out the market is going to go lower right.
All the bad news started to come out unemployment rates, all the jobless claims GDP declines, all these numbers started to come out. And where’s the market gone up and up and up. And so now a lot of people are figuring Okay, once the economy opens back up, we’re going to continue to work higher things are going to be great things are going to be up on the up and up.
And I think that’s the moment when things are actually going to fall in a massive, massive way. Because then there’s no more like not just looking out the window then you got to come out from your dungeon you got to look around, you got to say our business is 50% of what it was.
And you know, our hope is it can be like 60% of what it was maybe next year. And at that moment, that’s when these analysts have to start taking down their numbers and that’s when things will get very interesting but there’s just aren’t there aren’t any good deals in the stock market right now.
But you know, what, if the stock market won’t give you a good deal yet no, I Well, okay, I’ll give you guys a good deal. Okay, April 17 to the 19th we’ve got a huge deal coming on the private stock group you ever want to learn exactly what I look for in stocks as well as how to build successful portfolios go ahead and make sure you put in your email down there.
I’ll be the pin comment and you know get in the private group with us we’re gonna have a semi annual sale is going to be huge. You get to be part of the discord chat, you get to see all the stocks I’m buying and selling all things like that. So I hope you guys enjoyed that deal. Thank you for watching and have a great day.