Sell Stocks Now
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Today we have a little chat if you should be selling stocks now and taking profits or wait. I want to go through a lot of fundamentals as well as show you some graphs that were just released that may blow your mind!!! Valuations have reached scary levels and you can only see how crazy by looking at these charts.
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Well guys, before we get into today’s feature presentation, I just want to say thank you for 500k we hit it guys, we did it 500,000 subscribers, you’ve got to be kidding me. Okay, obviously, pretty serious video we’re talking about here today. But I just got to say thank you guys.
That’s a crazy number. I can’t believe that you guys went ham yesterday. Usually this channel gets like 500 to 700 subs a day. And yesterday you guys went ham with this. So they Thank you, thank you.
And as promised, I’m going to be smashing the thumbs up for you guys for all comments. For the first hour this video I’ve reserved an hour out of my day, I must just be smashing thumbs up like crazy.
And you guys leave like ridiculous amounts of comments. So it’s gonna be a lot of smashing, I might get some carpal tunnel syndrome going in my wrist, but I’m going to be smashing for an hour. Okay, so once again, thank you guys.
Like, that’s freaking amazing. That’s all I’m gonna say like, I never thought that was possible. So Alright guys, so let’s start getting into what today’s video is all about. We’re gonna talk about is it time to start selling stocks started taking some nice profits here?
Or should we still be holding stocks, and what I want to go through is I want to kind of break things down on a very base fundamental level in a way that everybody can understand. Okay, and we’re going to go through that level first.
And then I’m going to show you some graphs that are gonna be quite startling to you. I’m gonna show you some data in this video that I haven’t shared in any other YouTube video in the past and this data and these charts are really going to open up I think some of you guys eyes to what is really going on out there.
And you know, we’re kind of make a decision whether you should be selling Sunday stocks or holding right now. So if you guys really enjoy this video, smash that thumbs up as always, and by the way, I’m smashing Thumbs up for you guys.
So let’s get into this guys know why are we even talking about this? That NASDAQ composite broke 10,000 today 10,000. And all time all time all time high. Absolutely incredible, incredible number. This is why we’re talking about this here today.
The fact is the stock market has been amazing. s&p 500 as of yesterday was actually appear to date all year to date. Okay. I mean, as of today, it’s down. It’s basically breakeven is down point 6%. Okay, it’s basically breakeven, that is the most incredible thing I’ve seen in the stock market in my 11 or 12 years of being in the stock market.
The fact that the NASDAQ is at an all time high now is actually up quite a bit in the fact that the s&p 500 is basically breakeven on this year. You know, this is the craziest thing I’ve ever seen in the stock market.
Okay, this is a great picture, I had to look for a picture to kind of exemplify what is going on the stock market right now. The stock markets, that guy there, he’s like, there’s nothing to see here. Moving along.
And you know, in the background, there’s just craziness right in the background. You have mass unemployment, mass GDP declines, the massive recession going on that could lead into the depression, profits of companies are horrible. revenues are bad, bad, bad.
You have eaten, we could go through a million different things. And of all that going on the background in the stock market, like hey, nothing to see here, guys. Nope, nope, nope. All the time. It’s what it is.
Look at it. It’s a it’s a V, it’s a V, it’s a perfect v the NASDAQ composite, you just pull it up. It is a perfect v. absolutely incredible. I mean, and now it’s actually a V more to the upside. And then what’s the downside? You look at the s&p 500 It’s a Wii as well, it’s almost completely completed.
Now, at this point in time. It’s it’s the most insane thing I’ve ever seen the stock market, the fact that the market has come back this fast is just amazing. Okay, so now that we understand that the fact is a stock market has priced in the recovery in profits this year, because remember, on a fundamental level, the stock market at the end of the day.
You know, short term stuff can happen volatility market can go up a ton downtime, things like that, you know, different things can happen out there. But at the end of the day over the long term, what drives the stock market?
Well, it’s just the fact of corporate profits and corporate profits making sense for investors again, some of these stocks, okay. And so the stock market is priced in a V recovery and profits this year, something very important. Okay. Let me take you through a few stocks here that I think just, you know, open up your minds to a few different things.
Okay. Look at this stock, Texas Roadhouse, for example. Okay, there’s a restaurant stock is actually a stock I’ve been interested in for quite a while, I’ve never been able to buy it. But I’ve always been interested in this one great restaurant company.
Okay. If you look at the stock price of the stock, it is higher than it was most of last year. This is this is so important that when we start breaking down the fundamentals and really understanding how potentially crazy this market has gotten, think about this, a stock is higher now than it was most of last year.
Last year, this company had revenues that were growing quite substantially profits that we’re growing comp store sales that were through the roof. I mean, the business was just amazing. Last year, absolutely amazing. They were they were you know, just accomplishing a lot and doing some great things.
This year you fast forward to this year, what do we have revenue is going to be down huge for the company profits going to be down substantially. com store sales are going to be through the floor, literally.
I mean, think about this for a moment, most of the restaurants have been closed. And now the restaurants going to open they’re going to be at what 50% capacity. I went with one of my sons recently to the North Las Vegas, Texas Roadhouse, pretty much only one in metropolitan.
Las Vegas, so I had to drive way over there, that side of town, we went out to like a lunch dinner there one day, okay, the place was, you know, basically every other Booth was was closed, because you can only have 50% capacity. So it was kind of sad experience to and usually they had do like line dancing.
Like the waiters or waitresses and whatever they do, like some line dancing every hour, 30 minutes to an hour or whatever, there was two of them who did it. Usually there’s like 10 to 15 of them. It’s just not that many employees on staff, because the fact is, they’re at 50% capacity.
And this is what’s going on. Okay. And yet the stock was what the stocks pretty much at you know, higher than it was any point last year. How does, how does that make any sense? Okay, Uber technologies Uber, Uber stock, the stock I used to own right, made really good money on the stock.
I’m very appreciative Uber for you know, ever, here’s a stock that is higher today than it was most of last year higher today than it was most of last year. Meanwhile, the business is being devastated right now.
Okay. I mean, you look at these numbers, the current quarter, which will be reported in the next, you know, couple months, they’re expecting revenues to be down about 30%. Okay, the number you know, maybe it comes in even worse than that we’ll see.
Okay, Uber Eats is trying to save the biscuits right now. If it wasn’t for Uber Eats his business would really, really be ugly. 13 to 14% revenue is supposed to be down in the fall quarter. current year revenues are supposed to be down 6.7%. I’m gonna be honest with you guys.
I think that number is going to be much worse than that. I think revenues could end up being down 10% plus for Uber this year. I think double digit down is more realistic. But regardless, it looks like a business in decline as of right now.
Yet the stock price is higher than it was last year when this company was growing like crazy, right? Okay, let me pick on a stock I Oh, you might say, well, you picked on a couple stocks, you don’t pick on one you do.
Okay, I will, I’ll pick on the biggest investment I pretty much have, which is the FBX. Okay, the FBX is way higher today than at any point last year. Okay. Now I can make an argument that the stock was also very undervalued last year, but the fact is, and rates for the FBI are down considerably because businesses just aren’t advertising the way they were last year.
Okay. And yet the stock is at a record high, it’s higher, much higher than any point in the past year. So how does that make any sense, the FB was supposed to grow their business 20% plus this year, now the FBI is going to have revenue growth of maybe 9%.
And once again, the stock price, the stock price is at an all time highest higher than it ever was when the business was super strong. How does that make any sense? And don’t even let me get into these types of situations like our hertz global holdings where the stock files for bankruptcy and the stock price explodes higher over, you know, a few days or something like that.
Don’t even let me go there with those type of stocks. That’s just a whole different situation. I don’t even want to get into that. That’s just ridiculous. Okay, oh, we’re on we’re going bankrupt. Guys. Are our stocks going to zero?
Okay, let’s push the stock price up to, you know, ridiculous, you know, I can’t even go there. Okay, I can’t even go there. Okay. So in order for a V in the stock market to make sense, which is what we’ve had, we have a V in the s&p 500 and a V in the NASDAQ, we need for a fast V in corporate profits, okay?
Because at the end of the day, short term stuff can not make sense. But over the long term, things have to make sense. Okay. Now, most corporate profits rely on what consumer spending, okay, you and I go out there and spending, okay, Apple doesn’t make any money unless we go buy new iPhones and iPads and, and this and that, right.
And all those semiconductor companies that sell chips to Apple, they don’t make any money unless we go buy those iPhones and iPads and all those different devices. So the majority of these stocks out there, they rely on us going out and spending our money. Right.
Okay. And we if we’re going to spend money, we all need jobs, right? We need employment and things like that. Right. So here’s the thing we have going on. Okay. Remember, you heard about the unemployment rate dipping recently?
Um, okay, here’s an interesting article. No, the unemployment rate didn’t really drop in May. Okay. The BLS which is a bureau of labor statistics, let’s just call them the BLS instead of the BLS. I think that might be more interesting.
Okay. The bs asserts that nearly 21 million Americans were unemployed in May, attributing the decline to employers adding 2.5 million jobs in May as states allow, quote, a limited resumption of economic activity.
But it’s not that simple. The Unexpected decline in the jobless rate is based on a survey of businesses and households conducted over the week of May 16. In the BS has also reported that nearly 30 million Americans have received unemployment insurance benefits in the same week, that’s a gap of nearly 9 million people enough to raise the May jobless rate 5.7 percentage points to 19%.
And much closer to economists, expectations, we have a divergence of what some, you know, government and this is why this is why there’s so many if you’ve never understood why there’s so many trust issues when it comes to unemployment rate, and what you hear from kind of like these government entities and things like that.
It’s reasons like this, you hear Oh, my gosh, the jobless rate dropped, this is great news. And then you really look at some more of the data here. And you start looking at this, you’re like, this doesn’t make any sense.
Okay, it looks like if anything, there’s, there should be a much higher unemployment rate than what we got. Okay? This is why there’s so many trust issues at the end of the day, and I’ve heard it forever.
You know, I’ve always heard it from like friends or family members or or acquaintances, you know, that basically say they don’t even believe in unemployment rate, most of the time, they say it just lies.
And at the end of day, when you start looking at these numbers, you start just doing some some math. All sudden, you’re like, wait a minute, yeah, this doesn’t actually pick me stain sense, okay. And so we learned a fast v unemployment.
Because if we don’t get a fast V in employment, guess what ends up happening, people don’t go out there and spend money, okay, it hurts consumer confidence in terms of people that do have money in terms of thinking about going out and spending.
And obviously, if you’re the person that’s unemployed, you know, that’s not a you know, it’s not exactly the best situation for you, right? You just don’t have money like that to spend, okay? And especially this is true with something that is running out this fall.
There’s going to be something running out this fall that have jobs don’t come back very soon, over the next few months, there’s a huge risk to the economy, okay. And it says $600 unemployment, okay, those checks will run out this fall for most people out there.
Okay. Most people out there, the majority of Americans that are unemployed right now that are getting those $600 payments, or some are actually getting a little more than $600, depending on different situations. Okay?
Those people are getting that right now. And they’ll continue to get that because what the government has done basically until maybe potentially September, October, so that’s going to be the time when all of a sudden, it’s like, Whoa, okay, people need to be getting jobs very soon here, or those payments are going to stop coming in.
And those payments coming in. Things could get real ugly, real fast in the economy. Okay. So right now, the time is ticking, okay, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, people need to get back in jobs ASAP, okay.
Because if they don’t, it’s going to end up being a real ugly situation for the overall economy. And we could be looking at double digit unemployment rate for a year or maybe, you know, several years in the future.
And if you’re talking about that, you’re talking about a depression, okay? That’s a real depression, when you have unemployment over 10%, for longer than 12 months, that would be a depression. And so we need jobs to come back.
ASAP, the time is ticking. And if those jobs don’t come back, man, stock profits are gonna get cold from Santa Claus, this this Christmas season. Okay, that’s all I have to say about that. It will not be a pretty situation at all.
If people don’t have jobs, and those unemployment checks run out, you know, it’s gonna get really ugly really fast, because as of right now, there’s just a mask over this whole situation, which is, you know, obviously, the PPP loans, you have the stimulus checks that have been sent out in unemployment insurance.
It’s, it’s putting a mask up for the overall economy right now. And also the fact that, you know, we can hide on the fact that all most businesses are closed, or people are scared to come out because of Ronnie, Rona, we can week.
We’re masking it all right now, but the mask is going to start coming off here in the fall time. And then we’re going to start getting some reality and that’s where things are going to get really interesting.
Can you look at my city, right? Lv Las Vegas, right? Love My city. Man. At the end of the day, you know, somebody posted somebody in the private group posts all these pictures from Sunday, they were on the strip right strips open again.
They’re posting these pictures and I’m like, Holy smokes. It’s like a ghost town on the strip. I mean, you know, I was down this weekend. That was on a Saturday. It was decently busy. But the only property I really went to was the wind. So I can’t speak on the rest of the strip.
And I’m looking at these pics. I’m like, Whoa, and this is from many different parts of Vegas. And I’m like, dang, that looks pretty, pretty empty. Okay. I doubt all the jobs are coming back on the strip this year. I highly doubt it.
Okay, and less awesome. Everybody wants to take trips. Everybody wants to get on a plane, which we’re not seeing as of right now. Unless that happens. That, you know, I doubt all those jobs are coming back this year.
The best case scenario for my city is those jobs come back in 2021 or 2022. Okay, and if not, maybe 2023, which now we’re starting to talk 123 years into the future in hopes of those jobs coming back.
That’s quite a time in the future. Okay. And that that hurts me to see that. Okay, at the end of the day. Okay. So in terms of selling stocks, we still got to go through some charts that are going to blow your guys’s minds. Okay. In terms of selling stocks, timing the market is usually a no no.
Like usually it’s not good to time the market and try to get in try to get out and things like that. Rod, I will say we have a perfect scenario priced into the market, which makes an RR No, we’re not talking about Rolls Royce, we’re talking risk reward, it makes it not that great.
Okay, the risk reward for this market is not that great considering the the stock market itself has praised in the perfect scenario where unemployment comes down extremely fast jobs come back extremely fast consumer spending, you know, comes back extremely fast the market, the stock market that’s priced in a perfect scenario.
And that’s a worst case scenario. If you’re really thinking about risk reward, you never want to be you know, really participating in a market that everything is expected perfect. And for that matter, honestly, stocks when a stock’s price to perfection, that’s what ends up happening.
Usually they disappoint Okay, usually it doesn’t go perfect, and that stock gets hit. Okay. So at the end of the day, I have to stay in, but once again, we still got to go through some charts, I’m gonna blow your minds.
Okay. I just want to give you my opinion, okay. Here, you got to take profits and stocks that are near 2019. Highs, basically, okay, that’s my opinion, you kind of got to take profits in some of these stocks, you got to cash out some money.
I’ve been cashing out some money recently. And if the stock market continues to go higher over the next month or two, I’ll continue to take some more and more profits in some of these stocks. But the key word is if if it’s not a stock that doesn’t have a 2x 3x 4x 5x type opportunity.
Which most stocks don’t have those type of opportunities, okay, mostly stocks are not going to 3x 4x 5x 10x or revenues over the next five or 10 years, that is a high majority of stocks and stock market. They’re not okay.
There’s some very special situations, some very special stocks and some of the stocks I hold that basically, they’re going to likely grow massively, regardless of what happens in the economy over the next 510 years.
So I have to hold those ones. But if you will, some of these the most of the stocks in the stock market that don’t have those type of opportunities. In my opinion, what are you doing? You know, it just doesn’t make sense that a lot of these stocks are you’d literally they’re at.
Like 2019 highs, when the businesses were super strong, and other businesses are awful in their price, like everything’s gonna be perfect. Okay. And so in my opinion, if unless it has a huge opportunity, you can get got it, you kind of got to cash some of these profits.
And then where do you do with that money, you put that money in cash, and then you start looking for big opportunities, stocks, those stocks that have massive opportunities, and you can’t just buy any of those stocks either, because some of those stocks have ridiculous valuations on them in the end.
But at the end of the day, you can’t time high growth stocks, you just can’t do it. It’s too hard, because they just trade differently. Okay, value stocks, much easier to time when the markets at ridiculous levels like it is right now.
And it’s priced in a perfect scenario. And in terms of major growth stocks, you can’t really get into now those you know, I’ve seen a lot of people obviously, we talked about Tesla stock all the time.
And you know, I’ve seen so many people come and go and test the stock and try to get in and out of that one. All to be super disappointed. Like oh man, I sold this 600 I didn’t know it was gonna go up any higher i thought was gonna fall back to 400.
And it’s just it ends poorly. Okay, it ends poorly. If you try to do that with grow stocks. Most stocks in the stock market are not in that category, which means you’re allowed to take some profits here and there, okay.
It’s a great say and no one ever went broke taking a profit, okay, no one ever went broke taking a profit. If you hold a value stock, that isn’t much of a growth company anyways, and you’ve made a bunch of money on it, man, there’s no shame in taking a nice profit there and keeping that money either in cash right now or looking to deploy that in a stock that will actually grow revenues.
2x 3x 4x 5x likely over the next 510 years. Okay, no one ever went broke taking a profit. Okay. Now, I promised you some interesting charts. And let’s get into some very intriguing charts if this hasn’t been enough to kind of open up your eyes, because now we’re looking at the actual data.
Okay, and we’re gonna see some startling data. This data is out of your Dini research, okay? Y’all know these folks, but they do some very interesting research when it comes to forward PE ease around the stock market valuations and things like that.
Okay. Let’s look at this first slide here is first slide here, the top one is going to show you the s&p 500 large cap forward p e ratios. Look, guys, it’s so much higher than any time in recent history.
I mean, basically, we’re talking about the next 12 months of profitability for these companies versus what the s&p 500 in general is trading at. It’s so much higher than any time, you know, 2019 2018 2017 you look at any time in recent history, and we’re just was so much higher, okay.
On a valuation basis. That is scary. Look at the s&p 400 and mid caps. So much higher than any time in recent history, guys. I mean, it’s it’s at an extreme levels. I mean, people could have said, well, the numbers are pretty high in 2016 2017. Well, the huge corporate tax breaks were coming next year, so at least you had something to look forward to.
Here we are so much higher than that. The corporate tax breaks already came There’s no there’s not going to be like another magical, like corporate tax rate where they’re gonna say, Oh, it’s so 21% that we’re gonna charge zero or 11%.
That’s not coming. So here we are in a market that is insanely richly valued. Let’s look at the s&p 600 small caps Guys, look at the forward p e estimates, it has gone through the roof, like we really haven’t seen.
We haven’t seen it. Let’s be honest, we haven’t seen this any time in recent history. His chart goes all the way back to 2006. And it’s just it’s literally off the chart. Okay, off the chart. This one is the most startling of all them.
In my opinion, what we’re looking at here is a forward p for the s&p 500. Okay, and look at how far back you have to go to find a time period where four peas were this high, you have to go back to the tech bubble in 2000.
Okay, this is where things get scary for me. Okay, just scary. When you got to talk about you have to go back to the tech bubble to find valuations this high guys. You know, it’s anybody that’s in this market right now, you have to look at that.
And you have to at least consider the possibility of maybe taking some profits, okay. Especially if you’re in some stocks that aren’t huge growth stocks, you just have to look at that and say maybe, maybe it might be a little intelligent to take a few profits here and there with the with the NASDAQ at 10,000.
Made maybe, you know, just maybe, and and maybe the prices go even higher, and maybe the valuations get even more out of whack. But at the end of the day when you got to talk about we’re at valuations not seen since the tech bubble.
It’s it’s scary guys, it is downright startling for me as somebody that’s a participant in this market has been in this market for 11 or 12 years now, that when I look at that, I’m like, wow, like that’s just that’s a scares me, man.
It just, it’s not setting up for a good scenario. Look at this, okay, this might be the craziest one, all them looking at the four P of the Russell 2000. Look at all the numbers for the Russell 2000.
There’s so much higher for p wise than they have been any time in recent history anytime in recent history and look at the growth category. And this is why you can’t just buy any growth stock right now.
You have to be very strategic in where you look for growth stocks, because a lot of these growth stocks are ripoffs right now. Okay, just complete ripoff. But look at that forward p for Russell 2000 growth is that numbers like we have not ever really seen.
Okay, this this guy’s this has to scare you. Okay, this has to scare you. I know we like to make no jokes about fed go burn. You know, we love to make these jokes, and the stocks only go up. But I’m telling you, this has a recipe for disaster written all over.
And I don’t know when it’s going to hit. But eventually things have to get to realistic levels. Because when you look at charts like this, it is so ridiculous. I can’t even explain it. I mean, just the chart speaks for itself.
That’s all I gotta say the chart speaks for itself. If you don’t want to just look at you know, four P’s, look at the peg ratio s&p 500 valuation peg ratio, so much higher. And keep in mind that was this was done on the 28th the markets gone up quite a bit since the 28th.
So the numbers even higher now, peg ratio, way higher than any time even back in the tech bubble days, the peg ratios higher. Okay. You know, this is what you really got look at and just say, oh, my goodness, you know, valuations have gotten ridiculous, just straight up.
Ridiculous. And I know a lot of people that might be getting new, you know, getting in the market and might be newer, you don’t really know much about valuations. But it’s not just about like, like buying a company you like it’s also about you paying a fair valuation for that, right?
It’s no different than if I went down to the store. And I saw a pair of jeans there. And I look at the pair of jeans and I’m like, Oh, it’s nice pair of jeans, and you’re at Walmart, and the the price of the jeans says 25 bucks, and like, oh, I’ll get this pair of jeans at Walmart for 25 bucks.
And you see this other pair of jeans at Walmart, and it’s $2,500 you know, like, that’s probably not such a good price, right? It’s probably not such a good price. And that’s what we have happened in stock market where people just forget sometimes that oh, this is also about valuation.
It’s not just about buying a stock you like okay, it’s a seller’s market this this market right now. Okay. If you are a seller of stocks right now with the NASDAQ at 10,000. And the markets at all time highs, you were in straight up a seller’s market right now where the sellers have the full advantage you hear this sometimes in real estate, right?
It’s a buyers market or it’s a seller’s market, the buyers have advantage right now or the sellers have an advantage in the stock market right now. Let me be very clear it is a seller’s market you have the pure upper hand right now.
Because people are willing to pay ridiculous valuations for so many of these different stocks that you can just get ridiculous prices for right now. It’s a complete seller’s market. I somebody sent me a DM in the discord last night.
We were talking back and forth, somebody that made a ton of money off, you know, like put options when the market was falling betting big and then they made a ton of money on call options when the market was coming up.
And you know, we were basically talking back into I think they made like a few million dollars and like they did pretty well for themselves. And I was basically saying, you know, this is a seller’s market right now we’re not a buyer’s market and you know, they have a lot of money on the side and they were like, I don’t know where to put the money right now.
I’m like, I agree. It’s a complete seller’s market right now it’s not a buyers market. There’s there are very few great deals out there. And if you’re somebody that owns a ton of stocks, especially a lot of the stocks that the prices have flown up on, you’re just in complete control right now man, you have the complete advantage over these buyers.
I don’t know when that’s going to switch and the buyers will take control the market it could be a while from now or you know, we don’t know when that’s gonna happen, but I can tell you it this is a seller’s market and if you’re a seller of stocks right now you are in complete control because people are paying any valuation for the stock right now when that changes.
Who knows but razov right now people are willing to pay any price for so many stocks is absolutely incredible guys. So I hope you really enjoyed this video, hope you got a ton of value out of it not just from looking at it on a fundamental like basis, but thinking about it on terms of the data and really looking at the valuation numbers.
So I hope you guys enjoy this. Make sure you smash thumbs up. smash that thumbs up for you guys for that first hour. Once again, thank you for a half mil that’s flipping crazy. That’s all I have to say about that. Okay, thank you once again, thank you for watching. Have a great day.