Is The Stock Market Moving Up Too Fast?
Application form to apply & try and get in my Private Stock Group/Financial Fortress
Today we chat about if the stock market is moving up too fast. it seems like in the past 2-3 weeks stocks have been moving up a lot! By a lot, I mean the dow jones industrial average is up almost 5,000 points in 2 weeks! That is incredible for the stock market. Too much too soon? What should we be doing with our money? I will let you know m opinion in this video… Enjoy!
Want to join our free STOCKHUB discord chat? Here is the link
This is where you can chat for free with other investors in the stock market about individual stocks or things going on in the market. Enjoy!
*My Instagram is : FinancialEducationJeremy
This is a Jeremy Lefebvre Production
Created by Jeremy Lefebvre
Well guys here today we’re gonna talk seriously about it. The stock market is moving up too much if you’ve been keeping track which most you guys have followed my channel, keep track of the stock market very close and you own stocks and your invest in the stock market.
You’ve been noticing that the stock market has been moving up heavily, and I mean heavily lately, okay. And I’m specifically talking about the last two weeks. Okay, so we’re gonna have a serious discussion, I’m gonna show you guys a lot of different things to look at here in deciding if the stock market’s moving up too much. I’m gonna give you my personal opinion on if the stock market’s moving up too much.
And what can we do about this? What should we be doing with our money in this type of situation? Okay, so I hope you guys enjoyed today’s video, as always hope you get a lot of value out of it, make sure you smash that thumbs up button. And also let me know what your opinion is down there in that comment section.
I would love to kind of read through your guys’s opinion on this whole situation. Okay, so here we are. We’re looking at the markets here today. This is about you know, starting these slides maybe about two hours before the market closes somewhere around there, roughly.
And we can notice that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is having a great day. Another great day. 542 points up for the Dow Jones Industrial Average say s&p 500 is 2.4%. The NASDAQ’s up 1.83%. That’s a really good day in the stock market. Not a great day, but it’s called a really, really good day for the stock market.
Okay, that’s another good it’s a it’s just another one. Okay. TJ Kelly, he says another one, okay. But look at the market from basically the end of February right around the end of February, through about March 23, March 24. It was insane.
It was the worst drop ever in stock market history that there’s no other way to describe that other than saying, I’ll probably never forget this, as long as I’m alive. Like being in the stock market being part of that type of stock market crash scenario where it was beyond a crash.
Like literally, we’ve never seen anything like that in modern times. Like ever. Even if you go back, you know, 100 years, you never saw anything like this. absolutely incredible. And let’s not forget how far we fell in how fast like from the market 29, five to 810, five, in a matter of, you know, a snap of fingers.
Absolutely. Incredible. Okay, this shows you the fastest 30% drops ever in stock market history. Okay, look at that. 22 days from basically February 19 and 22 trading days leading on that’s how many days it took for us to drop 30% Plus, it’s incredible.
It’s the most ever but you want to know what’s even more startling than that is even a number that’s more startling in that. And that’s when you take out all the crazy data back in the 20s and 30s, when our you know, financial system was a joke, compared to the debt today in our business community.
And everything was just you know, that’s like the dark ages of finance compared to nowadays, right. And you take out those dates, and you just put in like the more somewhat recent times, right, and the closest time you’ve got to go back to if you take out the with the time periods from the 20s and 30s is 1987.
And in 1987, the market took about 38 trading days to drop 30% plus and we did it in 22 days, these are day 22 days. That is just it’s shocking, literally shocking is the best word to describe something like that. You go back to 2002 took us 136 days to drop that for you will back to the financial crisis. Okay, the financial crisis, the Great Recession, the most intense thing a lot of us have seen, you know, in our lifetimes, right.
And when it comes to economically 250 days, it took for the stock market to drop 30% plus 250 days, you go back to 1968 361 days, march of 2369 days, January of 1973 373 days and took us 22 days, then, you know, I just don’t think we should ever forget that. And that’s incredible.
And I think it’s important to understand if you’re thinking about is the market going up too fast or not fast enough, it’s important to just kind of understand what happened like literally about a month in two months ago. Like that’s incredible, right?
But it’s also keep in mind that that that what happened economically has never happened either. The United States of America has never had to like basically shut off the economy anytime in recent times. Okay, that is something like no one could have predicted like the United States of America just like pretty much shuts off its economy like it’s a water spigot like almost overnight.
Like that’s incredible. So I think it’s more understandable that we would have that type of drop, if you just shut off the economy overnight. And that’s gonna freak a lot of people out because we’ve never been through this. We don’t know how fast we can recover and not recover from this scenario.
We’ve never been through this. We’ve been through recessions, where things slowly get worse and slowly get worse and then they slowly start to climb back. We’ve been through that a million times. We’ve never ever ever seen this in, you know, especially any time in modern history, where the whole economy basically kind of shuts down because of obviously the Rooney situation is like okay, when we when we start back up How long does it take for us to recover?
And let’s keep in mind, it’s not just the United States, it’s basically global economies around the world, named the biggest economy, you want all the biggest economies all around the world, all basically went into shutdown mode right around the same time.
It’s an incredible thing. It’s, you know, probably there’s hope, at least a once in a lifetime type event, once in 100 years is when you actually have to literally shut down entire economies because of a situation like this. It’s incredible.
And it has happened and it made the stock market go down. 30% Plus, in a matter of 22 trading days, it’s incredible. But also, you know, just the fact that global economies have shut down is incredible. Okay, so now now look at this, okay, stock market now up 655 points.
Okay, this is what we’re talking about. I mean, literally just said, I’m prepping. This video is going up more and more now approaching a 3%. upward move. Okay, so let’s go ahead and pull up a chart now looking at this, the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the past one month, and you’re going to see how fast as markets gone up, okay.
From the bottom was 18,500. The Dow Jones Industrial Average as of right now is trading at 23, you know, three, so essentially adding almost 5000 points in two weeks. Okay, that’s incredible, almost 5000 points added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average in a two week span.
Now, if you’re curious, it took all the way until 1995. For the Dow to top 5000 points K. Nuts, let’s just think about that for a moment. Think about how long the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been around for. And it took all the way until 1995 for it to hit 5000 points.
And here we are, we just added 5000 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average in a matter of two weeks span. That is incredible, right? That’s absolutely incredible. Okay, if you want to ever show off and you know, flex on the on the finance nerds like myself, okay, pull out a little statistic like that, you know, just be like, Oh, yeah, you know, that we just added 5000 points in the last two weeks in the Dow Jones, right?
Oh, did you know that it wasn’t until what year and they’re gonna be like, what year and you’d be like, 1995. That’s when we first hit 5000. Baby. Yeah. And it’s not just the Dow Jones Industrial Average, we look at the NASDAQ composite, right, the NASDAQ 1400 points in the last two weeks, this is very short amount of time, the s&p 500 is up 500 points in the last two weeks a huge move for the s&p 500.
Okay, and what is the most incredible about this, we go ahead and look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average, right. And we’re going to see that the market is now higher than it’s been at any point in the past one month, higher than any point in the past one month.
That’s incredible, because you think about it. And we definitely had a lot of fear, you know, if you go back a month ago, but it seems like we had even more fear recently, but yet the market, the stock market is higher than it was, you know, literally anytime at any point this month.
And that’s incredible to kind of think about that, okay, now, there’s a lot of people, including myself that believe the economy will be able to start to reopen in the month of May. That’s the hopeful thing, okay. That’s the hopeful thing.
That’s, you know, optimistic lookout, I believe it is very possible that some businesses can start to open their business backup in the month of May, and the economy can start to really restart in the month of May, and then start ramping.
Hopefully throughout summer as we go into June, July, August. Hopefully, you know, some people can get back to work. And that will be a nice thing. That’s a hopeful thing. But it’s not a for sure thing, okay. But when I start looking at what the stock market is doing, I’m starting to think that market is pricing in my scenario, whether the economy opens in May.
That’s what it’s starting to look like, when you get the Dow Jones Industrial Average to go 5000 points roughly almost in a matter of two weeks, you’re starting to price in the optimistic scenario. And the optimistic scenario being that the economy can start to restart in the month of May, it’s pretty clear the market is starting to price in that.
And the longer we go with this whole Roni situation where the the global economies in the United States economy are shut down the lower and lower probability that we have a fast recovery and the longer and longer this thing goes and if it goes into summer or goes into a fall of next year, and we’re still kind of shut down.
Like it’s going to take us a long time. We’re talking years and years to recover. But if we didn’t restart in May, there will still be absolutely damages, no question about that. But the damage will be more minimalize versus basically every month, the economy’s closed down, things are just gonna get a lot worse and they’re just going to be a lot more drama, a lot more negativity, a lot more fear out there.
That’s just it’s just the way it is. Okay, so the market starting to price in may open, but we still got a lot of questions remaining. We can’t we can’t just you know, brush these questions aside and be like they don’t matter. We’ve got a lot of questions. Okay. Where does unemployment peak?
Big question. We know unemployment numbers are incredible right now like pretty much the worst ever, like, especially coming in through short term like It’s nuts. How bad these unemployment numbers are, but it’s not like it’s company’s fault.
And it’s really not like it’s government’s fault or our fault or anything. no one to blame. It’s just the Roni situation at the end of the day. That’s what’s causing all the employment, you know, the fact that we’ve had a shutdown here. And it’s causing mass amounts of unemployment, GDP, where will the GDP decline peak, we know GDP is going to probably be the worst ever in the United States, America’s history by far and away.
Once again, it’s not my fault. It’s not your fall is not anybody’s fault, really, except, I don’t know, whoever started the Roni situation, we’re there’s still a lot of debate about that, right. But we don’t know where GDP decline will peak at.
We just don’t Okay, then we don’t know how long it’s gonna take for these things to get back to normal levels. We don’t know how long it’s gonna take for the GDP to get somewhere back to where it was, let’s say two, three months ago, we don’t know how long that’s going to take.
We don’t know how long it’s gonna take for the unemployment rate to come down to a more normal level of let’s say, 3% 4%. Like it’s been for the last couple years, right? If you look at unemployment rate, and it’s been a three or 4%, for the past several years, how long is it going to take us to get back?
There’s it’s like, okay, we get back there in a year or two? Is it like, no, it takes us like five years to get back. That’s a big factor. We don’t know that right. And then the fourth thing, we don’t know how strong ETS will be the I’m talking about earnings per share these companies, we know 2020 is going to be bad, bad, bad, bad, bad for earnings per share for all companies, pretty much.
Almost every single company out there, or at least let’s say 90% of them are going to see APS declines major time, meaning like, like double digits percent plus, are going to see those type of declines in the APS in 2020. But the question is, How fast do things come back are as 2021 a year where things get almost back to normal?
Where companies can get their GPS back to almost where it was in 2019? Or are they still a mile away? And it’s like, maybe 2023? We’ll get back to those numbers. That’s a big question as well. And when you start thinking about those type of things, that’s what should really dictate where the stock where the stock market will be right?
Earnings is what drives the s&p 500. Overall, as well as confidence out there and those sorts of things. These are all big questions. So if I look at somebody like myself, Jeremy, you can call me the bull. Okay. Why am I bullish? Well, you know, I have a brain, and most years, and most times it It pays very handsomely to be bullish.
It’s just the facts. Okay. It’s just facts about it. So I’m usually almost always bullish. But even somebody like myself, that’s, you know, call me a perma bull, or whatever you want to call me. Even somebody like myself has to look at things. And that’s to say, there’s a lot of questions out there. There’s absolutely a lot of questions.
There are unanswered right now, around unemployment rates around GDP around companies, GPS, that is just factual. There’s a lot of questions about that. So even somebody like myself has to look at this and say, I don’t know, man, I don’t know, I don’t know how long it’s going to take for unemployment.
Because we’ve never seen this scenario. There’s nothing I can study. To understand this scenario. There’s nothing. There’s nothing anybody can study. We’ve never been through this before. We don’t know how long it’s going to take for MGM resorts or earnings to come back to where it was in 2019.
How many years will that take? We don’t know. Okay, is Apple’s business hurt right now? Probably. But how bad is Apple’s business hurt, right? The biggest company in the world? And how long will it take for Apple’s business model to get back to the epsu is producing in 2019?
Let’s say how these are questions I can’t answer. These are questions the executives of the companies can’t even answer right now. These companies won’t even give out guidance right now. Why won’t they give out guidance? Because they have no clue.
See what I have no clue where where earnings are going to be for the remaining remainder of this year in into 2021. We just can’t accurately predict any of these numbers. Why? Because we don’t know when the Roni situation is really going to be over.
And we don’t know how long it’s going to take for people to get back to normal spending habits. I can’t wait. I mean, even McDonald’s can’t forecast their sales. No one, no one can forecast their sales right now. And so even somebody like myself, that’s a bowl, I just have to look at things that I have to say, there’s a lot there’s more, there are more real serious questions right now than any time period I’ve ever been the stock market.
I can tell you the last 11 to 12 years, you know, other than when I first first got in the market and during the Great Recession, and then that time period, there’s just been a lot of talk about what I call nonsense talk, where it’s like, oh, let’s just we got something to talk about today.
Let’s go get scared about something today. A lot of nonsense talk right now is not nonsense talk. This is real talk. Okay? Very, very clear about this. This is real talk right now. Okay. We have real things going on. We have a real huge unemployment rate that’s gonna, you know, probably peak out within next few weeks.
But it’s going to be a massive number. We had the worst GDP decline in history. And these are these are real things that we are actually going to have to work for what accompanies epss are getting devastated. A lot of these companies are going from very profitable companies.
So companies that are losing 10s of millions, hundreds of millions of dollars a month and when their businesses are closed. Okay, we have real questions right now, this isn’t one of those time periods where it’s just a bunch of talk and it’s just a bunch of fear.
No, even somebody like myself, that’s a bull has to acknowledge that Okay, so at the end of the day, are we moving up too fast? In my opinion, we are getting down By the way, now, now we’re about a little more than an hour to the closer stock market. Look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Now it’s up 712 points, we’re moving up too fast in my opinion. And that’s coming from somebody that’s bullish, that’s coming from somebody that has the majority of their money invested in the stock market. Okay, that’s coming from somebody that, you know, does better when the stock market’s going got high, you know, so I think these are just some some things to think about.
But in my opinion, we are moving up too fast. It’s just, it’s just too fast. Okay. That just flat out, I think we’re, I think the stock market is pricing in too many perfect scenarios. And I think if anything kind of goes awry here, I think we can get another big dip in the stock market. And, and we can get back down to those, you know, under 20,000. level.
If something I mean, if everything goes perfect, everything opens back up in May. And it’s just like, boom, boom, boom, and it’s a V recovery in the economy. And it’s like, Whoa, 2021, we’re back to where we just bought in 2019. This is amazing. Sure, the stock market action makes sense here.
But I’ll sign up that one scenario, outside of that one scenario, we’re moving up to fast, flat out, okay, flat out. And I think if you’re comparing the market to the 29, five level, I think that’s a huge mistake. Okay. So if you think Well, we’re still like 6000 points roughly, down from where the peak was in the market.
I think you’re making a big mistake, because keep in mind, when the market hit that 29, five level, it was pricing in a pretty much a perfect 2020 2020 that had earnings going through the sky. There were a lot of valuations that were way too rich, there were very few deals in the stock market.
I talked about this many times in the channel, it was a very select amount of companies that you could have made an argument that were actually good deals, okay. And keep keep in mind, everything was a bad deal that because no one knew, but the Roni was about to take off.
And so if you’re comparing the market to 2005, I think that’s a mistake. I think if you’re thinking about the real high for the stock market, I think you should be comparing it to like a 27, five, a 28 range. I think that’s a little more realistic, the 29 five, we hit, you know, basically in February of 2020.
I just think that that number is unrealistic. That number was so high, you know, what’s crazy is perfection. And we got the opposite of perfection going on. We got company earnings that are through the four right now. We got companies that are desperate bankruptcies, or we need cash, we need bailouts.
It’s the complete opposite of what people were expecting in 2020. And so we’re just we’re just moving up too fast, in my opinion. Now, what can you do with your money on the situation? What can you do? Keep some dang cash, okay, I talked about this in the video yesterday, you got to be keeping cash right now.
Okay, though, with the market moving up as much as it is very recently, is a time period where you got to keep cash, you can be very selective, maybe nibble off on a few stocks here and there. But overall, I think it’s actually you know, with how much this markets moving up.
I think you’ve kind of got to keep some cash right now. Really, really do with how many questions we have out there, it makes sense to keep some cash on the sidelines, here’s the thing, you had an opportunity to buy some of these stocks incredibly cheap.
Uber was trading for 13 $14 a share. It’s gone up 100%. In the last couple weeks, it’s gone up 100% in the last two or three weeks Uber stock, right? You had your opportunity to buy the stock under 20. And so Toulson now, two or three weeks later, say Ah, you know what, I didn’t really want to buy Uber at 15 1413.
But man, you know, 27 now I want to buy. I’m just like really late, like really? Like, like, that’s how you want to play this game. You didn’t want to buy it a couple weeks ago when it was that price bananas and you want to buy this 2007 like that. That’s the type of stuff that just frustrates me when I see someone in the stock market investors doing things like that you had a big opportunity now it’s like, okay, Uber, Uber, $27.
Probably still a good long term investment in my opinion. Yeah, I will say Uber is a good long term investment likely at $27 long term. But once again, like, like think about the situation we have right now, think about the fact that you could have got Uber like, you know, we’re not talking about it’s a small difference in price, right?
If it was like 5% cheaper, 10% cheaper. Okay, one thing it was 50% cheaper a couple of weeks ago, and now you want to buy Uber at 27 like come on Tesla stock. Tesla stock was under 40 bucks. It was in the three hundreds, just a few weeks ago. And so people you know, some people didn’t want to buy it at 300 and something and now it’s in the market starting to recover and and Tesla’s at 550 and now people are like, Oh, now I want to buy Tesla.
It’s at 550 I mean, we’re talking about these shares were you know, 150 to $200 cheaper just a few weeks ago. That’s a little crazy. In my opinion, Wynn resorts, the stock price has doubled almost. It’s at 68 bucks here today. It was at 35 bucks a few weeks ago, when he got the stock well under $40 could have got the stock well under $50 several times in the past few weeks.
And now all sudden people want to buy it at that 68 tapestry ticker symbol TPR $15 here today, you had many times to get in the stock in the past few weeks at 10 $11 a share. And so when I see this, when I see these sorts of things, you just got to keep some cash on the sidelines, keep some cash on the sidelines, especially if you’re already heavily invested in the market.
And you’ve got, you know, let’s say 60% of your money 70% of money 80% 90% of your money, invest in the stock market already. In times like now you want to keep cash, we have a lot of serious questions going on, that need to be answered in the stock markets moved up huge if the stock market was still at 18,000 19,000 in terms of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
And the countless of the stocks were trading at stupid prices, like when when was that 35 and Uber was at 13. And you know, some of these other stocks that were priced like just like ridiculous, then I say go ahead and deploy cash, but we’re not at that situation.
Now, the market has come back really strong last several weeks, a lot of stock prices have come back very strong the last several weeks, and when those sorts of things happen. And when you’re having a situation where the stock market is likely pricing in a perfect scenario, which the stock market is starting to do. In times like that, you got to say even as somebody that’s a bull out there and somebody who’s very bullish times.
Like now you kind of got to say I think I’m going to keep a little bit of cash around because things just aren’t adding up here for the stock market. Okay, and unless you’re somebody that’s never invest in the stock market and you just have to buy some stocks because you want some great long term investments outside of that scenario.
Which is probably 1% of the people that are watching this video right now 99% of you guys watching this video are already invest in the market and already have a lot of your actual wealth invest in the stock market and if that’s you a lot of times like myself it makes sense to say I’m gonna stay on the sidelines right now.
I’m gonna keep my cash I’m gonna hold on my cash right now. I got in a lot of great deals in March I really did. But now now you know now now the market starting to price in a lot of things to go very well and we’ll see if it all happens but for now.
Keep the cash in the pockets and that will be that okay, hope you guys enjoyed today’s video as always, make sure you smash the thumbs up button. Thank you for watching and have a great day. Share this with somebody