Application form to apply & try and get in my Private Stock Group/Financial Fortress
Today we talk about the stock market going UP AGAIN and AGAIN and AGAIN! Let’s look at all the “good news” folks because we have so much “good” economic news or not.
Want to join our free STOCKHUB discord chat? Here is the link
This is where you can chat for free with other investors in the stock market about individual stocks or things going on in the market. Enjoy!
*My Instagram is : FinancialEducationJeremy
This is a Jeremy Lefebvre Production
Created by Jeremy Lefebvre
Well, guys, at this point in time, the stock market is just starting to get funny. Okay? It’s just starting to get serious. Okay? The Dow is up again today. The s&p 500 is up again today, the NASDAQ is up again today is this even real? This is unbelievable.
It’s all up again. And this comes just after yesterday, the market was up a bunch more and ton of stocks were up huge, like long and Tesla yesterday, huge day for Tesla rate of seven and a half percent, and FB was up 3%.
Tons of stocks made huge upward moves yesterday, it was a green day yesterday. And here we are today. It’s the same exact thing, another Green Day yesterday in the public account made over 18k and K.
And it’s one of the best days in the history of the public count for absolutely no reason. There were no earnings from any of my companies. There was no like big news and great news for any of my companies.
And it was over $18,000 day, just in the public count yesterday. I don’t know what I made yesterday, it might have been 30k 50k across all my different accounts. It was unbelievable. And it’s another Green Day like you would have figured Okay, today would be like that day we give back some Right.
I mean, the markets just been so hot. It’s got a it’s got to some point, just go down and it just goes down. I mean, it’s unbelievable. The Dow the s&p 500 NASDAQ, they just won’t quit. It is it’s crazy. And so you must be thinking there’s got to be a ton of good news out there.
I mean, for this market to keep pushing up. And we got to be like just loading up on good news on top of good news. Well, we have a lot of drama across the entire United States of America right now, cities pretty much kind of in like chaos right now, like absolute craziness.
Like stuff we haven’t really seen in American cities in in quite a while to this scale that is forcing a ton of the cities and businesses that just opened up very recently over the past couple of weeks to actually start closing either early or closing completely.
And you know, that’s just you know, that’s a whole situation in itself. Right. We What else do we have? Vila must be some some other good news, right? Because that’s definitely not good news. Well, negative interest rates could be needed for a V recovery fed economist says, basically, meaning they’re thinking about the possibility. And don’t be surprised if this ends up happening.
You know, we’ll see what happens over time. But don’t be surprised if over time, we end up going to negative interest rates, which essentially means like you get paid to kind of like take out a loan, which is absolute craziness. Okay, so you have that news come out today. And that’s like, wow, I mean, is that really good news? I don’t really think so.
Okay, embattled Wells Fargo cuts back from making loans to independent car dealerships. This is another news we got out here today. So essentially, meaning Wells Fargo is cutting back on their loan programs through a lot of these car dealerships, which means that’s one less loan company out there, which is good news.
In the respective you’re thinking about, like taking out risk, but at the same time, if these car dealerships want to move cars, they need as many big banks in there as possible, as many lenders in there as possible. So they can get people financing, right. I mean, you know, Park, the car dealerships are not tough time right now, the automakers are in a tough time.
And this just comes after right. Home Loans got a lot harder very recently, over the past couple months, almost all the big banks out there, they made much more strict guidelines for if you want to try to get a home loan, it got a lot harder very recently, you need a higher credit score than you did before.
You need more income than you did before. Basically, it just got harder to get a home loan very recently. And so we still got to see how this whole thing effects the real estate market. Because once again, I mean, a lot of people have gotten forbearance and some of those sorts of things. We still don’t know how that’s gonna all shake out.
Meanwhile, what else do we have going on out there? Well, no more not good news. Okay, Ronnie Rona ravaging cases are up to 6.2 8 million now global us up to 1.8 1 million. I mean, they’re talking about, you know, we could be over 2 million by the end of next week, there’s a lot of big cities have actually shut down in their testing.
So you know, who knows, and that number might actually be a lot higher than that, okay? auto research firms expect new vehicle sales to be slightly less than 1.1 million vehicles in May, down by about 32 to 33%. Compared to May of 2019. Unbelievable, okay.
Imagine that a third of auto sales year over year. Okay, that’s extraordinary, extraordinary. Well, better than expected, the industry sales are still a long way off last year. And I mean, that’s after April was really bad. March was, you know, kind of rough may it’s just horrible.
And then you think about what what’s June gonna be, what is July going to be what is August going to be, you know, who knows where the numbers will shake out, but they’re going to be down, and they’re probably gonna be down still double digits, if not 20% Plus, if not, maybe potentially 30% Plus, like the auto numbers are rough
And that’s definitely a big source of income and money velocity out there. You get those people and a new car and the salespeople make money off that the service people make money off that the people that build the cars make money off that right? It’s a whole big money making operation.
And you know, right now it’s just it’s just not in a good place. Let’s be very clear about that. Okay, GDP now projected, this is more good news we got today. Okay, GDP now projected to fall nearly 53% in the second quarter according to the Fed gauge. 53%. That has to be the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard in my life.
I mean, I don’t know if I’ve ever would have thought I would in my lifetime, I would see a 53% GDP decline. That is extraordinary. I mean, even if even if, let’s say GDP fell 20% that is ridiculous. Kate, even on 20% fall on GDP is ridiculous.
Like you go back throughout history, and good luck finding another time period where GDP decline, you know, 20%, quarter over quarter like that’s just ridiculous. Nevermind a 30% fall, nevermind a 40% fall, never mind a 53% fall in GDP.
I mean, guys, what the heck is going on? I mean, you just look at all this. And it’s like, how is the How is the stock market right now? Near all time highs, it makes you just like have to rub your eyes and just say how, how, how is the stock market right near all time highs with this gauntlet of just bad news.
Okay, look at this chart. This is going to show you the projection of how bad GDP will t Klein. Oh guys, that is awful. I mean, q1 of 2020 was awful. Negative 5%. Let’s be very clear about that. That is extraordinarily bad. Okay, negative 5%. But when you talk about a 10x, and a 50% plus decline, you’re talking, you’re on a whole different scale now.
Okay, a whole different scale that we’ve never seen before. And that essentially means money velocity, okay, money velocity, let me explain it like this, this is a normal situation, for money velocity, there’s you watching this video, right?.
Now you decide you’re going to go out and spend some money at the local restaurant today, okay, you decided to go down there by yourself and you spend a little money and you get a drink, and you get some food and spend little money.
And that’s great that money is spent out there and the restaurant owner makes a little bit, the waiter probably makes a little bit because hopefully you tips a little something right. And you know, let’s say the busboy, they are the cooks, they make a little money as well.
So you know, several different people are really getting a piece of that money you spent out there. Now those people they go out and spend that money out there, and a bunch more people indirectly or directly make money off that money being spent, than those people and the numbers just get bigger and bigger, bigger, it’s money velocity, and it just keeps getting bigger and bigger.
And this person goes spends with this person. And you know, just because you spend on one business, there’s so many different people that make money off that, that the money velocity is just amped up out there. And then it’s just it’s compounds and compounds and compounds. And that’s a normal situation.
But now in the current environment where we see GDP declines of, you know, 50%, or whatever, right now, the money’s just not, you know, being spent out there. And so that person is saying, I’m going to go, you know, to that restaurant, they either can’t go that restaurant, or they choose not to do so, or, you know, basically buy this or buy that.
And so the money just stays with that person. And the other people are out there saying big Can you please spend money over here so we can get some money velocity on so we can go spend some money with other people. And it’s just not happening right now. It’s simply not happening. And that’s, it’s the worst.
It’s the worst thing for an economy. When you stop money velocity, there’s nothing worse for an economy really, then when you stop money velocity, it’s pretty much you know, if you think about the two or three worst things you can do for an economy, it’s just stopping money velocity, because it’s just it’s so detrimental.
And that’s why you see massive GDP declines, massive unemployment, because money’s just not flowing out there. And if money’s not flowing, you know, how, how is money going to keep flowing. It’s just it’s something that, you know, makes itself worse and worse. It’s like dominoes fall in the wrong way, when you get money velocity going the wrong way. Okay.
The Atlanta fed anticipates personal consumption expenditures, which makes up a 68% of the nation’s gross domestic product to fall 58% in the April to June period, gross, private domestic investment, which accounts for 17% of GDP is now projected to slide 62.6%.
Okay, so we know the US economy specifically, there’s really built upon people going out there and spending at services, okay. And there’s always like a joke about the US economy. It’s like, you know, how do we build an economy where people just spend money at Starbucks, essentially, right? But that is the US economy.
It’s all people spending on different services and whatnot. And, you know, that’s an oversimplified, you know, way to kind of look at it negatively, but at the end of the day, it’s just folks, you know, spending money with this business out there.
Then another person spends money, it’s a consumer led economy, and that’s what we have the United States and usually it does very, very well, except when you say people can’t go outside and they can’t spend money and things like that and you just completely destroy And these numbers are astonishing you know i don’t you know.
Hopefully we never ever see numbers like we’re seeing right now ever again because it is it’s just sad Okay, it is just sad now I just while I was prepping those slides look at now we’re five minutes till the market close to the market closes here in Vegas at one o’clock Okay, five minutes to close. Look what the Dow is up now isn’t there a little.
We’re also on dow is now up 221 points, s&p 500 now at point six 6% NASDAQ now up almost a half a percent. Wow. Isn’t that weird? Here we are ready to end and this hole is buying pressure out of nowhere, right before the market closes. Interesting. Let’s keep an eye on that.
Okay, over 40 million this came out this weekend, over 40 million Americans have filed for unemployment during the past two months real jobless rate over 23.9%. Okay. The jobless rate is somewhere around 24%. Right now, guys, these are numbers you just can’t make up like this is extraordinary, extraordinary. And if you want to wonder like, Why are things getting even more heated than in the past, at the end of the day, and you have a lot of people frustrated about a lot of things.
Okay, including the economy. And you know, being cooped up and not having jobs now with a 24% jobless rate now, and you’re going to have mass frustration out there. And if you want to think about unrest that might continue on, you know,
When you’re talking this is one of the date one of the good things about a strong economy is people are busy, and they’re working and they’re doing things and generally speaking, things are relatively peaceful. But I can tell you, if also you have 20% 30% of folks are unemployed all sudden, and a lot of these people want jobs, you know.
You’re going to get into a really volatile situation that could last several months. Okay, that’s what ends up happening. And here we are with this headline stocks jump as Wall Street focuses on economy reopening. s&p 500. Now up 40%. From March lows 40%. Guys, we’re not talking about a market that is down and out.
We’re not talking about market this just still, you know, kind of trying to come back a little bit. We’re talking about a 40% gain. And what just a little over two months. That’s extraordinary. Okay, on hopes on hopes of the economy of reopening. Okay. And here we are. here’s here’s the final numbers market just closed.
Okay. And look what we’re at now. Dow Jones Industrial Average went up 267 points day over a 1% move. s&p 500 went up point eight 2% NASDAQ went to point five 9%. And it’s just have a question for you guys. Who was buying right in that last, like 1015 minutes of the market being open where the market just kept going up? and up and up and up? Like we need some massive buyers out there.
We’re not talking about some guy, you know, spends 10 20k in stock. Okay, we’re talking about we need some mass bind, we’re talking about pushing these s&p 500 companies up these dow companies up companies with, you know, 10s of billions, hundreds of billions, if not a trillion plus dollar market cap, who was pushing the market up right before the close?
You know, you know, I think this is just a fair question, who like who’s doing it because this seems to be happening almost every day, right before the market closes, the market pushes up and up and up. And sometimes we’ll see futures push up just for no reason out of nowhere, just futures pushing up.
And so the market starts out green, then sometimes it will kind of weaken and then all sudden, magically, right before the market closes. You know, a bunch of buying pressure comes in. It’s just like, Where is that buying pressure coming from? You know, I just think it’s a fair question.
Nobody can really answer that as of right now. And here we are looking at the NASDAQ that’s within 200 points of an all time high. Low I mean, you know, you can’t make this stuff up guys. You can’t make this up. You look at the GDP you look at unemployment, you look at corporate earnings off you look at any any any news is bad news right now in the market doesn’t care about anything.
It just keeps going up and up and up. Okay. And uh huh. Okay, here we go. Well, Jeremy, the markets just looking to the future. Okay, I guess so sick here. And that To be honest, okay. I guess you know, somebody has been this market for 12 years now.
I can tell you most of the time, the stock market looks a little into the future, but it doesn’t look very far. Let me be very clear about that. As somebody that’s participate in this market for 12 years.
The market will look a little into future but it doesn’t look too far. Okay. Usually the market it kind of looks at mostly the current situation. Okay. Let’s be very clear about that. But if we’re saying the markets looking at the future with the NASDAQ’s at all time high or getting close to an all time high.
With futures looking at it looking at 2021 is it looking at 2022 is it looking at 2023 because I can tell you if the markets looking at 2021 earn It’s probably not looking at the right thing because I my opinion 2021 earnings for most of these companies is not going to come back to 2019 levels, just a snap of fingers.
I don’t think that’s happening. I don’t think that is realistic at all, for a lot of these companies, and especially with the dramatic situation we have going on out there. So in my opinion, if you’re thinking about, you know, the the market, getting back to where it was, as far as corporate earnings go, you’re really going to push out to 2022, or 2023.
And I can tell you, the market never looks at four in the future. It doesn’t like I said, I’ve been in this game for 12 years now. And not one year, as a market ever been focused on what’s gonna happen two or three years from now, that’s just not what the stock market does.
Maybe the stock market can look out two, three months from now, six months from now, maybe nine months from now. But the stock market in general doesn’t look to see what’s going to happen in two or three years.
Because you don’t know, you don’t know what’s going to happen two or three years from now. So it’s so unrealistic for the market in general, to focus on what s&p 500 earnings could be in 2022 or 2023.
Because no one has any clue market has to focus on 2021. And when you push up against all time highs and earnings probably aren’t gonna be anywhere remotely close to all time highs, you know, you’re just sticking yourself in a really tough situation.
Okay. And I see this why was a public count up $1,000 in all seriousness, it was up 18,000 yesterday for no reason, literally no reason. And it’s up another 1000 a day. Why was today Not a day where gay backs on the gains? You know, tell me why I just It doesn’t make sense.
Okay, it doesn’t make sense for that account to be up again. And this is this is us every day right now, we just laugh at this marquee you know, you open up your iPad or your your iPhone or whatever.
You know, smartphone you have and you go on your stock tracker app or whatever app you check stocks or you go to your brokerage account and you just look at it and you can’t do anything but laugh honestly.
Because if you try to take this stuff serious right now, it’s just gonna frustrate the hell out of you. That’s all it’s gonna do because you know in this is coming from a lot of us Long’s are frustrated.
A lot of us that have, you know, ridiculous amounts of money invest in this market. We don’t feel comfortable with the way the market is acting right now. Okay. And I think that’s just something to take into account, all you can do is you just gotta laugh at it, because it’s just, it’s funny at this point.
Market goes up every day. And dolphins are nothing but bad news. It’s just you kind of have to laugh at it. Okay. And I understand I’m very clear, I understand the folks that say stocks only go up movement, okay.
It’s like its own movement. Okay, stocks only go up stocks only got this is a, you know, what people you know, I’ve obviously said, and I’m gonna understand the movement, considering the fact that the markets gone up almost every single day, it seems like since like, what, two two and a half months ago.
And so when you get more into a market where the NASDAQ jumps, 3000 points, 3000 point jump in the NASDAQ in a matter of about you know, less than two and a half months, when you see something like that, a psychologically your brain just starts to get trained, like like, it just keeps going, it just keeps going and just keeps going.
And you just start thinking like nothing bad can happen. The stocks are just gonna keep going up the NASDAQ is just gonna keep going up the s&p 500 is gonna keep going up, valuations is going to increase, increase, increase, and you know, it’s natural, it’s your brain, you know, if your brains recognizing something’s consistently happening.
You know, it’s you just, you start thinking like, this is gonna consistently keep happening, okay? And so who’s to not think the NASDAQ’s not gonna go to 10k now 11k 12k 15k 20k I mean, at the end of the day.
If the market just keeps going up, then your brains just gonna keep telling you the markets gonna keep going up. It’s just, it’s just what makes sense. So who’s to say that’s not going to happen? Because if the market is it doesn’t make sense at 9600 what, you know, is it going to magically make sense at 10k or 11k?
No, it’s just going to still make as little sense as as it does right now. And so the thing I can tell you guys is is a very dangerous market in my opinion, in all seriousness, you know, we laugh about this and the market just keeps going up day after day after day.
And in in you know, with all this bad news, a gauntlet of bad news, but in all seriousness, it is a very dangerous market it’s the most dangerous market I’ve seen in my 12 years been in this it’s the most dangerous I want to be very clear about this.
Okay, valuations are sky high and we have massive amounts of good news priced in ideally in the stock market. You want to be in a stock market where there’s no good news priced in because that usually means you have massive upside potential.
If good news starts to come. Right now I feel like just about every bit of good news has been priced in when you look at where the s&p 500 standing at when you look at whether the NASDAQ within 200 points of an all time high it’s within what a couple percent of an all time high you have massive amounts of good news.
Priced and in effect is when it comes to valuations for Pease haven’t been this high since you have to go back to pretty much the tech bubble. And you know, oh gosh, guys, we don’t even want to associate with the tech bubble.
Believe me. We don’t want to be in the same conversation as a tech bubble. But literally if you’re trying to look for for Pease network this high in the past, you have To go back there, in that scary and painful, okay, no one wants to go back to the tech bubble to try to compare anything.
But this is a market we’re in right now. This is why I say this market is extremely dangerous. And I don’t just mean dangerous in regards to like, newer investors. I mean, everybody in general, when you have a market where valuations are sky high.
And massive good news is priced in, it makes it really, really hard to find deals. I mean, I mean, extremely hard to find deals. You know, if you go back to March, yeah, there were deals everywhere, man, it was like shooting fish in a barrel. But now, with the NASDAQ up 3000 points in a little over two months.
You know, now, it’s like good luck finding good deals, it’s like one in 1000. Right now, that’s the truth. If you’re in the stock market, you’re ever buying assets, you want to pay fair valuations for or ideally undervalued prices, right?
That’s how you really make the money. And right now in this stock market, we’re in a stock market where the best case scenario is maybe you get a fair valuation. But for many of these stocks, in most of these stocks.
Let’s be very clear, most of the stocks, you’re paying overvalued valuations where these companies are just trading way high compared to where they should be trading way high, too. And I’m not just talking about super high growth stocks, I’m talking about a lot of value stocks out there, or even, you know, trading at some valuations at a site.
It doesn’t make much sense, guys, and so I you know, I’m I just want to say this is a very dangerous market, we can laugh at it your markets up again, oh, tomorrow, all the futures up again, markets up again, we can all laugh about it.
It’s real funny. And you know, we keep making money from this whole thing. But at the end of the day, you know, with with the reality, you know, and the fact that the stock market is so disconnected from the reality, I just think it’s you know, it’s it’s a dangerous game at the moment.
And you really have to stay very disciplined right now. And you have to keep lots of cash ready to ready to roll. And you know, if people want to say, well, the market just keeps going up. So I just had to put all my money in the market, you can do that.
But I’m just saying like, you know, whatever, who knows, maybe the NASDAQ’s going to 20k. And you know, four peas are gonna be at 1000 and, you know, who cares it then but it’s a dangerous game as long as saying and we’ll see what happens over time.
But uh, you know, as long as you got money invested, you’re making a lot of money. And, you know, don’t be afraid to take some profits if you find some some stocks that you hold that are trading at some ridiculous valuations.
You know, don’t be afraid to take some profits here and there, if you want to, you know, build some cash position, or if you want to put that money somewhere else, you know, don’t be afraid to do that.
Because just because the market is an you know, going up right now and it continues to go up 3000 points in a little over two months, doesn’t mean that’s gonna continue forever. Okay, I just want to be very clear about that.
You know, it’s just, it’s weird. who’s buying it then in the market like super heavy like that, then the strange you know, no one gave me a straight answer about that. But anyways, thank you for watching and have a great day.