Elon Musk warns Tesla Employees about Tesla Stock (+ future Profit Projections)
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Well guys some interesting news was leaked today! Telsa’s Elon Musk emailed Tesla employees warning them about Tesla Stock. What exactly what was mentioned in this email? I will show you what Elon Musk said to Tesla employees and what this means for the stock.
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Hey guys, welcome to today’s video hope everybody’s having a great day out there. As always, we have an Elan musk elite email that was sent out last night to Tesla employees around Tesla stock we’re going to talk about this in this video what this means you almost is talking about the potential that Tesla stock could get crushed if they don’t reach certain profitability measures and things like that. Okay, we’re going to talk about that.
Then after we talk about all that all the stuff that’s in that email, I’m gonna show you guys everything that was sent to the Tesla employees. Okay, after that we’re going to get on the whiteboard. And I’m going to show you exactly my projections for Tesla’s revenue and net income for the next 10 years. Okay, I haven’t done something that epic around Tesla stock in at least a year or two.
Okay, it’s been a long, long time since I ran through all the future numbers that I see for this company as a Tesla investor. Okay, so that is going to be like one of the sickest things I’ve done in a long time. Okay, so I hope you guys really enjoy that all I ask from you guys in return is a smash that thumbs up button so we can get a little help in that YouTube algorithm.
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I said, Oh, man, I gotta make a video about this one. Okay. Musk warns Tesla employees, the stock will be crushed if they don’t control costs. Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in an email to employees on Tuesday, warning them that they need to control their spending in order to continue squeaking out quarterly profits.
Even though shares of Tesla are trading at all time highs ahead of the company’s inclusion in the s&p 500 this year among other things, Tesla began spending to build a new factory in Austin, Texas and another in Berlin. The company also embarked on a makeover of its paint facilities which are part of the US Vehicle Assembly Plant in Fremont, California.
This is coming from Ilan musk now Okay, investors are giving us a lot of credit for future profitability, but if at any point they conclude that’s not going to happen, our stock will immediately get crushed like a sofa. What is the sofa Okay, I actually don’t even know what it is, but it sounds bad. Okay, it sounds bad.
Under a sledgehammer or so fall under a sledgehammer. I don’t know. It just sounds really bad. Okay. Musk wrote in the email, which was obtained by CNBC electric vehicle new site electric previously reported the contents of musk email in early 2020.
Amid sluggish auto sales the world over Tesla cut some employees pay temporarily slashed contracts with temporary workers and fired an undisclosed number of workers after an annual performance review process. It has since rehired contractors and restored employee pay.
The Tuesday email echoes previous statements by Ilan Musk, but does not specify how Tesla plans to mind its budget on the company’s third quarter earnings call. Ilan musk told analysts and shareholders quote.
We’re trying to spend money at the fastest rate that we possibly can spend it, but not wasted. Okay, so yeah, that’s Tesla for you know, they want to spend as much as possible, as fast as possible, but trying not to waste the money essentially, because you’re trying to build the biggest pie possible out there. Okay.
But on the same code test, the CFO Zachary Kerkorian said Tesla plans to ramp up its capital expenditures by $2 billion dollars versus its prior stated plans of 2.5 billion in 2021. In 2022, among other things, he said the increased spending would enable Tesla to insource things like its battery cell manufacturing, we know there’s a lot of technological work and IP work that has been going on with Tesla in regards to battery cells.
Okay, Tesla raise $5 billion in September through an equity raise, but needs to pay down about $1 billion in this in its fourth quarter related to converts. Okay. Now, this is a full email from Elan Musk, okay. And this was once again sent yesterday Okay, last night, I think it was okay. At a time like this when our stock is reaching new heights, it may seem as though spending carefully is not as important.
This is definitely not true. Remember, this is enormous. And in this case, when looking at our actual profitability is very low around 1%. For the past year, investors are giving us a lot of credit for future profitability, but if at any point they conclude that Not going to happen, our stock will immediately get crushed like a soulful under a sledgehammer once again, what the heck is that? Okay, much more important.
In order to make our cars affordable, we have to get smarter about how we spend money. This is a tough game of pennies requiring 1000s of good ideas to improve part cost, a factory process or simplifying the design while increasing quality and capabilities.
A great idea would be one that saves $5 but the vast majority are 50 cent here and 20 cents there. In order to make the electric revolution happen.
We must make electric cars stationary batteries and solar affordable to all veins and great working with you as always. Ilan.
Okay, this is big stuff here. Ilan, saying, Hey, guys, we got to focus on this profitability. The stocks been going crazy. Obviously, there’s huge expectations over the next year or two, that Tesla is going to increase profitability drop dramatically. Okay.
And so yeah, there’s, there’s definitely a lot of pressure on Tesla stock. And if you know, numbers aren’t what a lot of people think they are. I mean, yeah, the stock could absolutely get crushed, but it’s at the type of levels it’s at, okay,
Which keep in mind just based upon that email today, it freaks some investors out. I mean, look at the stocks down over 3% here today, the NASDAQ site, basically breakeven and tough to sock down over 3% because a lot of people said saw that and they’re like, oh, man, is this upcoming quarter gonna be bad?
Did are they you know, not literally not saving enough money or there’s a profitability, not where it supposed to be. And so definitely, a lot of people are kind of getting freaked out. So that’s what Ilan Musk has to say they’re around profitability for the company.
And like I said, I agree with this, because there’s an immense amount of pressure on this company over the next one to two years, specifically, to increase profitability rates at a substantial rate that’s like expected from this company now. So if they don’t, if that doesn’t happen, definitely, you know, a lot of investors could get scared out of stock.
And remember, okay, this is very, very important. It’s not just Johnny buying two shares of Tesla stock on Robin Hood that’s made Tesla go to a $550 billion market cap, I can promise you that what it is, is a ton of big funds out there that had been buying into Tesla stock over the past year that have now become believers or sort of believers in tests of stock.
And so a ton of those funds, if all sudden they don’t see profitability measures getting hit the way they should be, if they don’t see the revenue numbers coming in the way they thought they would, as far as revenue growth goes.
And those sorts of things, just overall execution, some of those big funds could sell out, and you could see the stock go down 20 3040 50% in a very quick amount of time, whether that happens or not, we’ll have to see.
But believe me, it’s not just all a bunch of Robin Hood investors that are in Tesla’s stock, I can promise you that, you know, when you get that big of a company to move that much, you’re talking about billions and 10s of billions of dollars pouring into that stock, just continue to make that stock go up and up and up. Okay.
So with that being said, that’s what Ilan Musk has to say that’s the whole email situation. Okay. Let’s go ahead. Now, let’s run through projections for Tesla around revenue in net income for the future years. Okay. We’re going to do this all the way out until 2030.
That’s as far out as I can possibly take it when I’m running my numbers. Okay. So, Tesla 2021. This is, this is kind of what is expected from most people out there.
Most people on Wall Street on average, the average on Wall Street is expected Tesla to do about $45 billion of revenues in 2021. All right. And from what I’m seeing the average person on Wall Street’s expecting net income to be somewhere around $3.5 billion dollars, roughly, okay? That would mean 7.7% of revenues is hitting bottom line,
Okay? And this is going to be a very important number. in future years for Tesla. Now, if the company started to reach some level of profitability, this number is going to be super important. Now remember, you know, Elan Musk was talking about one person has been hitting bottom line.
Okay, so this upcoming year, a huge improvement, like the biggest improvement like Tesla’s ever had pretty much in profitability is expected for this company. Remember, it wasn’t that long ago, that Tesla was losing a billion dollars a quarter, right? So for the company to be losing a billion dollars, then now making a profit to go to something like that is definitely a possibility, especially when you look at the ramp of some of these vehicles coming out.
Okay. So I kind of agree with those numbers. I you know, I think somewhere around 45 billion they’ll do in 2021 revenues. And I think somewhere around three maybe best case scenario $4 billion in net income this company do so I agree with those numbers. Okay, now from here on now. We’re going through just my numbers, okay. The numbers I have, that’s strictly me. Okay, this is more Wall Street plus me. This is me.
Okay, so let’s start getting There’s some minor numbers in those future years. Okay? So my projections for this company 2021 through 2025, essentially, is basically that they grow top line like 40% a year roughly, okay, some years are going to be a little better, you know.
Some years, they might grow revenues 45% or 50%, depending upon, you know, when products ramp, we’ve even heard some, a lot of people say, you know, Tesla’s going to grow 50% per year, each year for the next 10 years, okay, I’m a little more modest in my numbers, I’m saying about 40%, from basically 21 through 25.
And like I said, some of these years, they could come at 30% 35% is not the type of company you should be flipping out over, if they they hit 30% be like, oh, now they’re only go around 30%. And they’re only gonna grow 20% next year, it’s not the way it works, because their vehicles are expensive. You know, think about it, like a vehicle costs, you know, what 40 5060 $70,000 most of these types those. So when you’re looking at those numbers, plus, what if they have a big huge project?
Like an energy facility, like, you know, that could be that could bump up numbers huge. So I don’t flip out, I just kind of look at it as 40% roughly per year. Okay. So 2022 revenues, I expect for this company, $63 billion of revenue in 2022.
Something keep in mind about that number is still relatively small, on a scale of the biggest automakers in the world, like the biggest automakers in the world, they’re all doing 100 billion plus, okay, so even though $63 billion in revenue sounds really huge. It’s huge for Tesla at that moment, but it’s not huge for like the auto industry in general.
Okay, especially not huge from where Tesla’s going to be going at, you know, future years after that. Okay. And I expect them to make some improvement on net income as well. Okay. So I think the company will do about $5.7 billion of net income in 2022, which would mean about 9% ends up hitting the bottom line. Okay.
Like I said, this numbers gonna be very, very important. Moving in future years, how much of that revenue coming in the doors actually reaching that bottom line? Okay, there’s got to be bigger and bigger thing over time. Okay.
Now 2023, at a 40% growth rate, revenues should come in somewhere around roughly $88 billion for this company. All right. So now we’re talking about, okay, we’re getting to some fun numbers, okay. net income, I think will be $8.8 billion, roughly, in 2023, which would mean about 10% of the revenues actually hit the bottom line.
When I look at the product roadmap, when I look at how the factories should have ramped By that time, cybertruck should be in full production around the world, plus, you got model three and full production around the world, plus you got model y in full production around the world.
Plus, you should have the semi in full production around the world. Plus, you should have full autonomous driving like, you know, you’re gonna have full autonomous driving, even in 22, you can make an argument that’s already starting to happen. But as far as like mass adoption of full self driving vehicles, I think is really going to happen in 23.
And I think that’s going to help that number get to about 10%, roughly. Okay, now, real quick, we are talking about something okay. In these future years, I never had them improving the basically the top line to bottom line, why is that? We’ll get into that in just a moment. Okay, and I’ll explain my thinking around why I don’t think that number is going to improve for a few years, it will improve after that.
But for a few years, that number is going to stay somewhat stagnant, actually, in my opinion, okay. 2024, I see this company having revenues of 123 billion roughly, and I see the company having net income of a little over $12 billion. Okay, once again, that means about 10% of revenues are actually hitting the bottom line. Okay.
So at this stage, now, this is going to be an important moment for the company, because what you should see right around 2024 is you should see, all the other automakers probably starting to shrink their revenues quite substantially. And you’re going to see Tesla starting to emerge as one of the top revenue companies in the world.
And I think by this moment, Tesla will likely already be the most profitable automaker in the world, because what I see is the other automakers their profitability going down dramatically, because I feel like these years are where you really start getting mass adoptions of electric vehicles.
I think 21 and 22. I think those are still the excitement years, the hype years, the you know, still like that, that second generation of adopters are coming in. And I think this is it’s all mass market after that, okay, this is going to be the average Joe’s going out and buying a Tesla rather than going out and buying a Toyota or a Honda or you know, a Chevy or Ford or something like that. Okay, or Volkswagen, whatever.
Okay, that’s what I see there. Okay. And then 2025 is the year that I believe Tesla will become the biggest automaker, even though Tesla is much more than an automaker. Right, but the biggest automaker top line in the world in 2025. And I see this company doing over $170 billion of revenue, okay. And I see the other ones shrinking over, you know, the next few years, okay, net income of over $17 billion.
So now we’re talking about real big profitability. Okay, and still about 10% reaching bottom line. Now something to remember here, I don’t know why I wrote 17.3% is supposed to be $17.3 billion. Okay? Something keep in mind here is this is why it’s so hard to judge Tesla’s valuation, right? Because if we’re talking about this company’s doing 15 to $20 billion of net income in 2025, it doesn’t make Tesla look that crazy expensive, okay?
Even if you’re looking at 2023 2024, the company doing roughly 10 billion, if not more than 10 billion in those years, and you’re looking at a $550 billion market cap right now, it doesn’t look incredibly expensive, because you can start to justify Oh, that’s like a 5050 p based upon 2023 or 2024 numbers, right? Nevermind, on top of that, the company is going to continue to grow, we’re going to get into those numbers in just a moment.
But the company is just going to continue to be a growth beast for a long time after that. So when you look at it from that perspective, it’s actually this is why this is why I still can’t sell those 750 shares in the in the public count, because I’m looking at him like, even though the stocks gone up so much, you can make an argument that Oh, my gosh, this company is, you know, in a pretty dang good position for the next decade.
Okay. Now, why do I have no improvement in this 10% number from basically 2023 to 2025? The reason I don’t Okay, is because what I think is going to happen is those are going to be the years when the company is building up in scaling the robo taxi network, okay. And the robo taxi network will not help net income in the short term, okay, longer term, it will, okay, but I can tell you that Robo taxi network is going to be cost heavy.
And so even though the company can be improving and scaling the business way better, I actually don’t think there’s going to be any improvement for about a three year period in basically that revenue to the bottom line to net income. Okay, that’s the way I see it.
That could freak some investors out during that time that could make some other investors really excited because I understand Oh, my gosh, Robo taxi network is scaling it is building out. Yeah, it’s it’s a money loser right now, because I think everything else in Tesla’s business will be getting more and more profitable. But that Robo taxi network will absolutely be a drag for several years on the business. But think about this long term.
Like, if Tesla can be the biggest company in the world, the robo taxi network, you know, we’re talking about like the Uber Lyft, the Katrine of, you know, like self driving vehicles where there’s no driver in essentially, in the cars just coming to pick you up. Like imagine how big that market is long term, right? And so if Tesla can beat that company, I mean, my goodness, but yeah, it will be a drag on the business.
That’s why I see just 10% 10% 10% for several years out, I think 2026 is when that business will start to scale. Okay, so that’s what I have over the next, you know, four or five years. Now, let’s go ahead and start running through the last part of my projections, which is 2026, through 2030, hope you enjoy well. This is where it starts to get fun for the super long term investor. So I know, obviously, some of you guys might just be in this for the short term or something.
But a lot of you guys that watch this channel, you’re in this stock, I hear from you guys all the time, like you’re in the for the next 10 years, essentially. So for you guys out there that are in the stock for the super long term, I think this is going to be the most fun part of the video for you guys specifically. Okay, so let’s start getting this guy.
So first off, 2026 through 2030, I personally see the company growing, you basically top line on average, about 20% per year, I don’t think the company will keep up it’s a, you know, 40%, that ahead going from like 21 until 25, I think about 20% per year, remember, some years we’ve been it’d be better than that some years, they might grow 30%, some years they might grow 10% 15% a lot of is going to depend on new product launches and things like that, although I will say I think things are gonna get more stabilized from basically 27 through 30.
The reason being is that Robo taxi network member I talked about them building out, right, I think that’s going to be an extremely predictable business long term, I think you’re going to be able to see like rates be very predictable, the amount of trips be very predictable over time. And I think there’ll be a super predictable business, it’ll be much more predictable for the business model, then like big energy product projects, or big like, you know, ramps for a new car or something like that.
Okay, so here’s what I’m seeing for this company. Okay. So 2026 is, I think, the first year that in many years at they’ll start to see more flow through from top line to bottom line. Okay, I’m about 12%. So I see them doing about $207 billion, roughly in 2026 for revenues in about $25 billion, hitting that bottom line for net income. Okay.
And so like I said, that’ll be an exciting year for the company, in my opinion, because that’ll be the first time in many years that people will have seen oh my gosh, the robo taxi network is finally starting to make some money. Whoo. Okay. Remember,
I think is going to take several years, I think three years probably for that Robo taxi network to either not be a drag on the business or just start making some sorta money. Okay. 2027. All throughout these years, I see a continuous improvement in basically flow through from the top line to bottom line. Okay. I think, you know, if you just look at Tesla, how well the company is already built in how much?
How far in front of everybody else, they are in front of the competition, right? I think as long as they keep the pedal to the metal, as they say, right? Nope, no pun intended for a car company that’s, you know, sells cars, right.
But as long as they keep things going, they’re gonna keep their lead likely in front of all these other companies. And they’re gonna stay several years in front of these guys. And they’re already gonna have the branding power, like, you know, you think about electric vehicles, the first name that comes to mind, and you don’t really think about anything else is Tesla, right?
That’s a huge brand name, like, you know, recognition, like no different than Kleenex or something like that, right? Or, you know, if you say, you know, you don’t just say I just want a soda, you say I want a coke, right? Just like huge brand name. Never mind that.
If you’re already starting to think about like self driving vehicles, the self driving vehicles, think about already, your Tesla’s right. Never mind, if they’re the first to really build out the robo taxi network, the word association will always be there, and they’ll always be the biggest. Okay, so nevermind, as long as they keep their competitive leap.
2027, I see this company doing a little under $250 billion in revenues, and about $35 billion of net income, that would mean 14% flow through for that particular year. So yeah, things start getting really, really fun. As the business starts to scale.
And the production, you know, it’s just off the charts, the robo taxi networks built out 2028, I see revenues of about $300 billion for this company and net income of $48 billion, this company, which would be 16%, flow through to the bottom line, and we’ll look at some other numbers of some other companies don’t realize this flow through is actually not that high at all.
Okay, I actually think I’m taking these numbers a little conservative, but that’s fine. I rather be a little conservative and remember how many future products his company’s gonna come out with in the future member of the business like an insurance business, imagine the cash flows that can provide for this business as that gets built out in all these taxis that are on the robo taxi network, or all the say, with Tesla’s insurance product.
And imagine if the other 10s of millions of people that will have tussles by this point in time, if they all have tests? I’m sure you won’t, I mean, like, you just start adding up all these things. Everybody has autonomous driving by this time, like no one’s I can’t see people like buying cars without autonomous driving by this time, like that would just be like, what you’re gonna have to drive it around all the time.
Like, like, that’s just like, it’s just ridiculous thing to think about somebody that’s really, you know, looks at the future 2029 for this company, okay, revenues, about 360 billion for this company, and net income of $65 billion for this company, okay, that would put in about 18% flow through rate from top line to bottom line, okay.
And 2030 is a year where I think this company will reach the massive scale. And I think this will be the the stage in the company where they can keep a flow through rate a steady around where it’s at, okay, and so 2030 for this company, the granddaddy of them all, I see the company doing about $430 billion of revenue, see this company having about 85 billion plus, at that bottom line, net income. Okay, that would be a 20% flow through rate from top line to bottom line.
And I think they’ll be able to let the keep that number for hopefully years to go into the future somewhere around there, roughly. Now, that’s 20% number. Keep in mind, this is not some crazy high number, something like that. I know, you see the big revenue number and you see the the the net income number 85 billion looks like a lot, right?
If they were doing 85 billion today that would make them the most profitable company in the world, right? most profitable company in the world, Apple will probably do, Apple will probably do, let’s see 65 to $75 billion of net income in 2021. Okay, Apple will do.
So you know, if they were doing that number, today, they’d be the most profitable, but keep in mind, some of those companies might be even more profitable that time. So this number is not crazy.
Likely some of the biggest companies in the world. By that time we’ll be doing well over $100 billion of bottom line. Well, okay. So here today, okay, here today, companies like Apple or have a 21% flow through right now. 21%.
Same with Google, okay, Microsoft has a ridiculous flow through a 30%. Okay, I don’t you know, if Tulsa ever got to that place at 30% flow through the bond line, I will love that, okay, I’m not projecting that remember, whenever I’m doing these projections, I want them to be realistic to what I expect.
But I also want to be, I’d rather be more conservative and take a flow through more toward a business like Apple that’s at 21%, you know, 10 years from now then, you know, something like Microsoft that’s at 30%.
Because, you know, those sorts of companies like Microsoft that have a 30% flow through or you know, there’s something there’s a few companies that might even have a little better than that. Those are free companies, okay.
And a lot of times those companies are actually limited by their top line, because a lot of times those businesses are a little more software related. And so sometimes they’re just a little more limited on that top line.
Tesla is going to be one of the biggest companies in the future in my opinion, when it comes to that top line, no doubt in my mind, okay, you just want to look at the numbers and the projections and things like that.
And, you know, I’ve seen other projections that some folks expect this company be doing 500 billion 600 billion plus in revenues by 2030. And that’s fine. You know, everybody can have their own numbers.
It’s really hard to project out that far, just because you’re kind of trying to figure out okay, are they going to have more future products and services come in the market? Are those going to be successes? What’s the competitive landscape going to be? What are the moves made by that time and things like that, but regardless, like the numbers start to get really darn exciting for this company.
And that’s why even a $550 billion market cap or let’s just say 500 billion plus, that’s why I still can’t sell that stock in the public count. That’s why I’m still holding it, because I’m just looking at these numbers I project out in future years.
And I’m like, Why? Why do we got to sell it, man? You know what I mean? It’s just that’s such a hard decision at the end of day because you’re looking at it.
It’s like, whew, it looks really expensive. But I mean, even when you go out just a few years from now,the stock already starts not looking very expensive. Never mind when you start projecting out five years from now, seven years from now 10 years from now then it looks like it’s a deal and a half for anybody.
That’s a really long term investor, right? So anyway, that’s, that’s the stock. That’s my projections. Oh my gosh, guys, this was a beast to put all these projections together. So I hope you guys enjoyed this. As always, let me know what you guys think about future numbers for the company.
And I would love to kind of read through some of your guys’s opinion down there in that comment section. As always, hope you guys enjoyed if you don’t mind, smash that thumbs up button. If you want to join the stock cup. I’ll probably have that as a pinned comment if you want to apply for my private stock group probably had that as one of the pinned comments as well. Thank you for watching and have a great day.