5 Reasons Everyone Is Talking 2020 Recession
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It seems everyone in the stock market or financial space is talking about a possible 2020 recession, but why is this? I want to give you the 5 core reasons why the recession 2020 talk is so popular right now. People are talking about how to prepare for the next market crash and I want to share my thoughts about why this is.
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Well, guys, if you’ve been anywhere on the internet last few weeks, you’re gonna see this a lot of videos about the 2020 recession, everybody’s talking 2020 recession. It’s not just on YouTube, it’s on the internet in general, it’s on financial news channels and whatnot. And so many people are talking about a recession coming in 2020 years potential, and what should you do to prepare for and what do you do when we have the recession?
How bad will it be? And all these sorts of things? There’s so many people talking about it, then I thought it was worth at least addressing the five core reasons on why this is getting so much attention right now. Okay. Now, we first talked about a possibility of a recession in 20, about six or seven months ago, on the main channel far before anybody have you mentioned the words recession 2020.
And in that particular video, I went into why there was potential, like a 70% potential to have a recession in 2020. Okay, so let’s go ahead and talk about this a bit. Make sure you smash that thumbs up button, as always, like, Why are so many people talking about the 2020? recession?
Now, there’s many different groups of people that either want a recession coming in 2020? Or maybe they don’t necessarily want it, but they feel like it’s gonna happen and for certain reasons, okay, so let’s get into those five core reasons. Because there are five core reasons at the end of the day, why people are talking about this. Okay. The first reason Reason number one has to do with 10 years.
Okay, what is 10 years mean? Well, it’s been 10 years since we had a recession. And when you’re talking about 10 years, maybe even coming up on 11 years now, since the last recession, remember, we came out last recession in 2009. On a technical basis, although a lot of people didn’t feel like we actually were out of the recession till 2010 2011.
On a technical basis, we came out in 2009. There’s usually a recession, if you look historically, about every seven to eight years, roughly. So when you start coming up on 10, or 11 years since the last recession, people are gonna start thinking, Hey, man, we’re due for a recession, it’s been more years than in the past since we had our last recession.
So it’s just like human nature to kind of think, well, if a certain amount of time has passed, since the last time this thing has happened, then it has to be coming soon. Okay, seven, eight years, we’re on 1011 years now. It’s got to be coming soon, man. It’s gotta be coming soon.
And it’s just human nature. So the everybody in general, is just kind of worried about this. And they’re talking about this now, like, when’s the next recession coming? It’s gonna be coming soon, man, we’re do like, the odds are just stacked against us.
Now, man, we have to be having a recession, something sometime soon, managers have to happen, okay. And sometimes when you have all these people talking about it, it leads to even more people talking about it. Now, I will say, I actually prefer a situation where a lot of people are scared about a recession, or worrying about a recession, rather than a situation where no one’s worried about a recession.
That’s a time period I would personally be very scared in Okay, if everybody was just talking about how grand things are gonna be and why the economy was about to boom even more, and why there won’t be a recession, that would actually personally worry me about the fact that we have so many people talking about the possibility of a recession or why they think we’ll have a recession in 2020, or something like that, that when.
I hear that actually makes me sleep better at night. You don’t mean you think the opposite? You hear all those words and then make your get freaked out? For me personally, I feel better hearing all these people talking about 2020 recession, okay, but that’s the bottom line. Like, like, it’s been 10 years, it’s been a long time.
And people it’s just human nature, like people are like, okay, it usually happens over seven, eight, well over 10 years, it’s got to be coming soon. Okay, so that’s one of the main reasons you’re hearing so many people talking about the possibility of a recession.
Okay, reason number two, why a lot of people are talking about a 2020 recession is because something happened very recently, which is basically an inverted yield curve, okay. And basically, when the two and 10 year invert, usually it means a recession is coming.
Usually, it means within two year span, sometimes even within a one year span, whenever the yield curve inverts. It means a recession is coming, okay? It’s a what they call a recession indicator, a statistic that is usually proven right. And the fact is, like, usually when the yield curve inverts that a recession is coming very, very soon after.
Okay, so very recently, the yield curve inverted. And so a lot of people are freaked out about that. Okay, you you so you go ahead, and you compound, the fact that it’s been over 10 years since we had the last recession, then you go ahead and add in the fact that the yield curve just inverted, and now you’ve got a situation where people are like.
Okay, yield curve, just inverted, that means that recessions coming within next year or two, and it’s been a long, long time since we had a recession. So where do the yield curve inverts? Okay, man, the recession is coming. Okay. And so you get a lot of people starting to think okay, this is a sure thing.
And a lot of people believe deeply in these type of recession indicators nfo you know, something happens like the yield curve inverts. Like dude, a recession is coming. Okay. So those are two reasons right off the bat, okay. Then you add in this third reason, okay, which is essentially around corporate earnings, okay, around corporate earnings.
So us Essentially what we’ve seen is most corporate earnings are down year over year, especially a lot of the businesses that are international businesses, and especially a lot of the companies that do business in China. So which means I mean, usually corporate earnings are growing, usually company profits are going up. So when they’re going down, it’s another big indicator that you could be already in recession, or you could be going to recession very soon.
And what a lot of people worry about is if you have all these companies earnings, contracting, profits going down, then a lot of folks worry about, okay, companies might stop hiring, and maybe even companies start firing off positions. Because if you’re not going to make any money at the end of the day, then something needs to happen.
You either need to drop employees or maybe stop hiring or focus your business on something else. And for a lot of executives out there, a lot of times if their business is going down, the answer is let’s fire employees or that stop hiring the stop adding costs. Okay, that’s not always the right decision. But for a lot of CEOs out there.
And a lot of a lot of executives in general, that’s the decision they make. Okay, so people see corporate earnings going down, they’re like, man, corporate earnings are going down, that’s going to have to mean jobs are going to be cut soon, right, or companies are going to slow down majorly on hiring, which is going to hurt the workforce, which could be a domino effect to the negative.
And once this company starts firing some employees that leaves this company and start firing some employees, and that leads this company over here to fire even more employees. And it’s kind of like the dominoes rolling the wrong way, right? In the economy.
You know, jobs are everything, okay? jobs are everything because the more money this worker has over here and on job, guess what, he can start paying taxes on that and he can start spending that money, it creates another job in another job, another job. And when you have those dominoes going up, it’s great thing when you have corporate profits going down in the potential that corporations could cut jobs, because those profits are going down.
And those APS are going down? because keep in mind, the executives have to answer to the shareholders. If the shareholders are unhappy, they’re going to vote out the board of directors, the Board of Directors is who decides like who the executives at a company.
So the board of directors has to push pressure on executives and executives have to answer for something, get those profits back up. And if they can’t grow the business, then sometimes that means the next answer is actually firing employees.
So you add these three things on, and you’re going to have a lot of people getting really freaked out. Okay, that’s the bottom line, you add these three together, the fact that we were due for a recession, technically, you throw in the fact that we have an inverted yield curve, you throw in the fact that corporate earnings are going down.
And then there’s two other things we can add on the whole tariffs and the trade war right now. Okay. You throw on Tariffs and Trade war on top of that, with corporate earnings going down and inverted yield curve, and the fact that you’ve had haven’t had a recession in longer than usual, when you throw all these things on, you’re going to get a lot of people talking about the potential of a recession coming sometime soon.
Within maybe in the back half of this year in 2019. Or at some point in 2020. It’s just the way it is okay. And there’s good reason on why people should be talking about a 2020 recession. Like there’s good reason, if you just add in all that the tariffs, the trade war, and all these three things like, it makes sense. Okay.
Now, reason number four and Reason number five are a little different. They’re different agendas from different people in both them I call wish situations, okay. Number four, if you have a certain amount of individuals out there that are wishing there will be a recession in the US, if not in the overall global economy. Okay. Now, why are some certain individuals wishing there’s a recession?
Well, there’s a lot of cash on the sidelines right now. Okay, for number four, there’s a lot of cash on the sidelines. So you have a lot of folks out there with a lot of cash on the sidelines wishing for big recession. Why do they want a big recession?
Well, if they have a lot of cash on the sidelines, and there’s a big recession, well, then they can go and buy stocks for usually a lot cheaper than they could have previously, right? Real estate prices. If it’s a really, really big recession, a lot of times real estate prices will even drop, okay, so somebody can go buy a bunch of real estate investment properties.
So you have certain individuals out there that are cash loaded right now that have been sitting on money and are wishing a recession would happen because the price of assets almost always goes down in a recession scenario. It’s just a question of how much do asset prices go down? Do stocks drop 10%?
On average, do they drop 20%? On average, do they drop 50% on average, real estate does real estate dropped like 3% 5% 10% 20%? How much the real estate prices drop? See these individuals out there that are been wishing some of these individuals have been wishing for a long, long time that there would be a recession so they can go out there and deploy their money.
There certainly are certain individuals that just stack cash and they wait for that recession, but the meanwhile like everybody else is getting gains and their asset prices are increasing and these individuals are just waiting on that. Okay, but it is a strategy and you do have a certain amount of individuals out there that are waiting for that opportunity.
Okay, and that brings us to number five, you have another group of individuals that are wishing a recession happened okay. The First time I saw this with my own eyes was when we were going into like the 2012 presidential election. And what I was finding is there was a lot of agendas from like the Republican side of people kind of like secretly wishing we had a recession. Why would they hope that?
Well, if you’re going into a presidential election, it’s almost an automatic that the person will be kicked out of the office, if the country is in a recession, I think only one time in the history of the United States has there been a recession and the person who was in office got reelected.
I believe, it’s only one time in the history of United States if you looked it up, okay. So basically, meaning if there’s a recession, whoever is the president united states, at that particular time going into that election, it’s more than likely going to get kicked out of the office, and somebody is going to come in their place, because at the end of the day, we’re economy driven.
And if people aren’t feeling good about their jobs, and about their money, and things like that, and that means their house and their safety in their family, then they’re gonna want somebody new in office. Okay, so what I found in that election was there was a lot of like Republicans who secretly wanted the economy to kind of go down.
So then Mitt Romney could go ahead and get elected, and we could get a republican office, and I’m seeing the same exact thing. But now on the Democratic side, there are a lot of Democrats who secretly deep down want the economy to go into recession, simply so Trump can get out of office. And so a democrat could come in and take control.
Because once again, let’s say there’s a recession that happens in the next six to 12 months, I highly doubt Trump would get reelected, because it came into a pretty good economy. And then if the economy is always sentiment recession, everybody in the grandma’s gonna point at that and say, it’s your fault.
Trump, you you initiate the trade war, and the tariffs and blah, blah, blah, everybody will blame him, and it’ll be a super easy election to win from the democratic side. So this is what always happens, you know, because there’s elections, presidential elections every four years. And you’re gonna have some individuals that I mean.
I’ve even seen it, where some of these folks are, you know, flat out saying and like, a lot of people feel like deep down, like the deep down, they’re like, Man, I wish the economy is just going through recession, so so and so can get elected into office. But I’ve even seen some people as brazen to go out there and do interviews and say things like, Man, I wish there be a recession, just so we get Trump out of office.
It’s what I’ve seen out there. And it’s just what happens. So you have all these different agendas, you have some serious things going on in the economy that are worth addressing, and worth talking about, man, maybe we’re going down the route of a recession, and maybe a recession coming, you have a lot of legit reasons out there.
And then you add on groups of individuals who just want a recession, because they want to go ahead and invest their money and get assets for cheaper prices. And then you have some people who have for political reasons, want the economy to crash so their folks can get elected office, and you throw in all these different things.
And you’re going to have a lot of people talking about a 2020 recession and what it could mean, and how bad it could potentially be and why there’s going to be a 20 or 20 recession, when you throw in all those different things, man, it’s just the way it is guys. So who knows if we’ll have one I feel about the same as I felt six or seven months ago is probably about a 70% chance.
We have a recession in 2020, probably about a 30% chance we don’t I can’t say for 100% certainty either way, okay. It’s just the way it is. But anyways, let me know what your opinion is. Are we going to have a recession in 2020? Are we not going to have a recession? I would really love to hear from all you guys that watch this video in that comment section.
A lot of people are going to watch this video so I really want to hear your guy’s opinion in the comment section. I’ll be reading through it. Make sure you smash the thumbs up button as always and share this video with somebody who might think it’s interesting. Thank you for watching. Have a great day.